Session 1. The Demographic Components Cohort Method (MCDC) at the level of Major Administrative Divisions (DAM).
In this session, participants will review the cohort component method and do practical exercises applying the method using Excel and the R package, with input provided by the facilitators.
Session 2. Inputs for the MCDC: Estimation of the base population at the DAM level
Starting from estimates and projections at the national level, the base or starting population of the EPP is obtained. This requires the evaluation of census information at the DAM level and some estimation of differential omission by DAM. A methodology for estimating deferential omission at the DAM level will be presented.
Session 3. Inputs for the MCDC: Estimation and projection of the levels and structure of fertility at the DAM level.
The sources of information available for the chosen country at the DAM level will be reviewed, the consistency and coherence of the estimates at the DAM level with the national estimates and finally the projection of the level and structure of fertility, inputs for the MCDC.
Session 4. Inputs for the MCDC: Estimation and projection of the levels and structure of mortality at the DAM level.
The sources of information available for the chosen country at the DAM level will be reviewed for the estimation of childhood mortality, adult mortality and at advanced ages by sex. Mortality tables will be built for pivotal moments. Verification of the consistency and coherence of the mortality tables estimated at the DAM level with the national ones will be carried out. The levels (life expectancy at birth) and the structure of mortality (probabilities of death by sex and age) will be projected. Based on the life expectancies at birth and the projected probabilities of death, mortality tables (also projected) will be constructed and, thus, the inputs for the MCDC will finally be obtained.
Session 5. Inputs for the MCDC: Estimation of the impact of crises on the levels and structure of mortality at the DAM level.
In this session, a methodology will be applied based on information from vital statistics, to adjust mortality tables in periods of mortality crisis, such as for the years 2020 to 2022, obtained by interpolation between pivot tables, with the impact of pandemic in each DAM.
Session 6. Inputs for the MCDC: Estimation and projection of the levels and structure of international migration at the DAM level.
Estimates and projections of international migration balances by sex and age at the country level will be reviewed. Based on the available information, estimates and projections of migration balances will be generated at the DAM level. These balances are the inputs for the application of the MCDC.
Session 7. Inputs for the MCDC: Estimation and projection of the levels and structure of internal migration at the DAM level.
The estimates of internal migration balances by sex and age obtained through census information from the chosen country will be reviewed. Based on this information, estimates and projections of internal migration balances at the DAM level will be obtained, inputs for the application of the MCDC.
Session 8. The use of administrative records to estimate the population and census omission at the DAM level
One of the greatest difficulties is having estimates of census omission at the subnational level. This session uses available data from post-enumeration surveys and administrative records to estimate differential census omissions at the level of subnational areas. This session will present a methodology that has been applied to some countries in the region with good results.
Session 9. Demographic reconciliation at the DAM level.
With the inputs generated in the previous sessions, the population will be estimated by the MCDC in an Excel spreadsheet. This demographic reconciliation form allows you to analyze the estimated population cohorts by sex, where participants will make adjustments to the inputs generated to achieve consistency in the estimated cohorts with the census populations and the births and deaths observed in the vital statistics. Demographic reconciliation is the basis for projecting the population by the MCDC in addition to indirectly estimating census omission by sex and age and the completeness of birth and death statistics. During the demographic conciliation process, adjustments are made corresponding to the hypotheses of evolution of the demographic components.
Session 10. Adjustment of the DAM EPPs to the national EPPs.
Although the national EPPs can be obtained by adding the DAM, in practice, the DAM projections are adjusted to the national ceiling. This process is somewhat laborious, but necessary. Demographic information may present significant errors or inconsistencies, and since national-level PPEs tend to be more robust, in practice it is best to adjust DAM-level PPEs according to national figures.
Session 11. Population estimation and projection at the subnational level, by Minor Administrative Divisions (DAME), alternative methods to the MCDC.
As we disaggregate the EPP, it becomes difficult to apply the MCDC. This difficulty is associated with the number of DAMEs, their population sizes, and the availability and quality of the required information. Therefore, at the DAME level, mathematical models that can be simple are usually used, such as, for example, an extrapolation according to intercensal population growth rates. A more robust alternative is to use, in addition to the census population, administrative records, allowing the population to be estimated at census times. The administrative records of the countries in the region have improved substantially and, in several of them, they have been used to obtain better estimates of the population of smaller areas and, consequently, better projections. In this session, participants will estimate and project the population of the DAMEs based on the methodology proposed by CELADE, which is based on the census population and administrative records, the well-known method of symptomatic variables.
Session 12. Presentation of the results.
Finally, there will be a space to share the results obtained for the DAMs and DAMEs, the difficulties encountered in the estimation and projection processes using the methodologies and tools presented. Finally, it is expected that each participant can share the feasibility of applying what they have learned to the reality of their country.
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