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During this week, naval exercises between the Russian and Chinese navies are due to take place east of Shanghai in the East China Sea, a strategic area located south of Taiwan, east of Japan and north of South Korea. With this action, “Putin wants to show the world that he is not alone.” Interview with Ulrich Bounat, geopolitical analyst and specialist on Russia.
By Christophe Paget for RFI
RFI: What are Russia and China looking for with these manoeuvres?
Ulrich Bounat: It seems to me that the objectives are clear: they want to improve the coordination of their naval forces, if we see it from a military perspective. But from another perspective, from the Russian perspective, Vladimir Putin wants to show the world that he is not alone, despite all the sanctions that have been imposed on him since he invaded Ukraine, and he also wants to show that he has an important ally: China.
I would even highlight that China, for its part, likes this action, since it can also demonstrate that it has an important military ally, especially in this region where we know very well that there are extremely strong tensions with the United States, specifically around Taiwan. And although Russia has carried out such a displacement of forces towards the east of China, it must not be forgotten that China, for its part, has been much more prudent: China has always displaced its military forces towards this area, since it is its favorite area, and it seems that it has no interest in approaching Russia’s western borders.
RFI: China and Russia have multiplied their military maneuvers in recent months. However, these rapprochements began before the start of the war in Ukraine…
Ulrich Bounat: Yes, indeed, these actions began several years ago. Both nations share an objective: to modify the world order established since the end of World War II, that is, to take away their hegemony from the United States and the West.
But Russia’s failure in Ukraine, to which Beijing does not want to be linked, has provoked in China a certain reflection of the message that both nations have wanted to impose for a long time: that the West is increasingly fragile and its power is about to fall. , which would give rise to a “multipolar” world where China, of course, appears as the main competitor. However, the failure of Russia’s military potential in Ukraine has put that world view on pause.
We could also affirm that for this reason China’s position on Taiwan is no longer discussed. This topic has practically disappeared. And there are many other reasons to explain this, since China also has its own problems within the country, such as managing and ending its health crisis caused by Covid-19.
RFI: How does the West see these maneuvers?
Ulrich Bounat: I take these moves to confirm that, if necessary, China and Russia would be willing to act together militarily. But be careful, I would not say that it is an alliance, because we are seeing that China does not participate with the Russians in Ukraine, however there is closer military cooperation. This also explains why China is considered an enemy country for NATO.
These military and naval maneuvers add to the arguments with which the West points to China and Russia as the countries that want to modify the established order, since they are the ones who have created another group where nations like Iran participate. For Westerners, all this means that despite its current economic difficulties, China has not given up on its goal of reclaiming its role in the world order and changing the role of the West. A long-term goal.
