The president of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, seems on track to win a emblematic referendum on Sundaywhere he has asked for voter support for security measures, but a energy crisis in the nation Andean could affect approval.
Noboa, a young businessman in office since November, has promoted the 11-question referendum in response to the increasing violence in the streets and prisons of Ecuador, which the government attributes to drug trafficking gangs.
The issues are mainly related to securityincluding permission for the military to patrol jointly with the police, the extradition of accused criminals and increases in prison sentences for crimes such as terrorism and murder, among others.
Five of the measures would modify Ecuador's Constitution if approved.
Surveys from companies such as Cedata and Communicate last week suggest that voters are more likely to support Noboa, 36, in Sunday's vote.
However, the daily power outages of eight hours, ordered by Noboa on Wednesday amid the energy shortage throughout the country, would be damaging the president's image, according to the polling company Click Research.
“The worst case scenario is that you win some questions and lose others,” said Click Research director Francis Romero. “The popular consultation is once again going to be a referendum on approval of the president.”
The government declared an energy emergency due to the historically low levels of the reservoirs of the country's main power plants, in the midst of an aggressive climatic phenomenon of The boy. Most of Ecuador's energy comes from hydroelectric generation.
Noboa has promised a resounding victory in the referendum, saying opponents are nervous about reforms that will be approved by voters and has promised to increase his fight against organized crime.
Opponents say the referendum will benefit wealthy Ecuadorians and international companies.
Investors have adopted Noboa's safety stance after violence-related market volatility.
“Noboa is making investors reconsider the security risk, and see it as potentially capable of continuing until the next election,” said Zulfi Ali, portfolio manager in PGIM Fixed Emerging Markets Debt team, acknowledging that many could happen. things before the 2025 vote.
Noboa, who took office in November, seek re-election in 2025.
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