23 Feb. () –
An increase in temperature of 1°C can multiply by ten the number of displaced people, since it is enough for pastures to dry out and crop yields to change.
It is the conclusion of a new investigation directed by the Oxford Universitywhich studied the effects of conflict, weather and drought, on forced displacement in Somalia.
According to the research, a typical reduction in rainfall of 50 mm per month can also double displacements. But, he reveals, although the conflict causes important displacements, the displacement itself does not cause more conflicts
Dr Lisa Thalheimer, lead author of the study and a research associate at the Environmental Change Institute and the Oxford Climate Econometrics team, says it’s a statement: “Life for Somali herders and farmers is on a knife edge. Even a 1°C rise above normal temperatures – whether sustained or repeated frequently over a few months – is enough for pastures to dry out and crop yields to change.
Our research shows that these seemingly small temperature changes are having a disproportionate impact and forcing communities to leave their homes.”
He adds: “Based on our research on Somalia, a 1°C warming is estimated to be ten times the expected shifts. It is alarming that even this marginal change in temperature has such a huge impact. It highlights the effect that the climate change may have on vulnerable areas of the African drylands”.
Study author Moritz Schwarz, from Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, says, “These vulnerable regions are already suffering from the effects of climate change and are likely to get worse.”
