More hurricanes this year in the Atlantic due to the transition to La Niña

May 24. () –

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, is introduced with an 85% probability of showing above-normal activity.

NOAA forecasts a range of 17 to 25 named storms in total (winds of 62 kilometers per hour or greater). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 120 kph or greater), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 178 kph or greater). Forecasters are 70% confident in these ranges.

As explained it’s a statementthe upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a “confluence of factors,” including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and lower wind shear, all of which tend to favor the formation of tropical storms.

QUICK TRANSITION TO GIRL

As one of the strongest El Niño events ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a rapid transition to La Niña conditions, that favor hurricane activity in the Atlantic because La Niña tends to decrease wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, the abundant ocean heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.

This hurricane season also presents the possibility that an above-normal West African monsoon occurs, which can produce East African waves that generate some of the strongest and longest lasting Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to increase in strength without the interruption of strong wind shear and also minimize ocean cooling.

Human-caused climate change is warming our oceans globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, causing sea levels to rise, increasing the risk of storm surges. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on potential damage, warns NOAA.