A study shows that temperatures in the region and in the eastern Mediterranean are rising twice as fast as the global average. Models predict a rise of up to five degrees by the end of the century. The lives of 400 million people are in danger. “Unprecedented” heat waves could “compromise” drinking water supplies and food security.
Beirut () – The Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean are heating up at a rate almost double the world average. The fears that have arisen in recent years are confirmed, predicting a “desertification” overview of the area. According to model projections, the temperature will rise five degrees by the end of the century if steps are not taken to reverse the trend. And the region will experience “unprecedented” heat waves, prolonged and harsher droughts, and poor rainfall that will “compromise” the supply of drinking water and the food security of more than 400 million inhabitants.
The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East are more susceptible to the effects of global warming due to their unique natural features, such as large expanses of desert and lower water levels. The study is the work of an international team of scientists, supervised by the Climate and Atmospheric Research Center of the Cyprus Institute and the Max Planck Institute of Chemistry. It was prepared for the magazine Reviews of Geophysics and aims to highlight the impact of climate change in the region ahead of the UN climate summit COP27, to be held in Egypt in November.
The results of the study, which he defines as worrying, show that the macrozone is warming three times faster than the global average and, in general, faster than other inhabited areas of the Earth. The statement released by the Max Planck-Institut für Chemie also predicts “unprecedented heat waves”, which will create “disruptive conditions for society” and socio-economic upheaval.
In addition, the two areas will suffer a severe shortage of rainfall in this century that will end up further compromising the supply of food and water, with consequences that will not only be local, but will extend to a global scale. Extreme events such as droughts, dust storms, torrential rains and flash floods are expected. In general, arid areas will spread to the north and even mountainous areas, where there is now snow at various times of the year, will experience increasingly warmer climates. In the study, scientists finally show how greenhouse gas emissions in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East are growing much faster than elsewhere, and will eventually exceed even those in the European Union.
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