MIDDLE EAST Fears grow of an ‘unprecedented’ food crisis in the Middle East

This is indicated by data from a survey carried out by al-Monitor and Premise Data in Turkey, Yemen, Iraq, Tunisia and Egypt. 68% of those surveyed state that they are somewhat “worried” about finding food in the next six months. The Turks are the most concerned, with 75%. The Russian war in Ukraine weighs.

Baghdad () – Fear of an unprecedented crisis is growing among the region’s inhabitants, who look to the future with uncertainty and fear of not having enough money to buy food and raw materials. At least this is what emerges from a survey commissioned and published by Al-Monitor in five Arab countries spread across the Middle East and North Africa, according to which 68% of respondents say they are “worried” about the possibility of “access food”. Inflation and the price of food are sensitive issues for the local population and the main reason for the wave of protests that marked the so-called Arab Springs in 2011. Today, according to experts, it is the Russian war in Ukraine that weighs on them .

The survey examined the short and medium-term prospects in Egypt, Turkey, Yemen, Tunisia and Iraq, in a historic phase in which, according to the FAO (UN agency for food and agriculture), prices have risen a 14.3% in 2022. According to experts, this is the largest increase since the 1990s.

The survey conducted by Al-Monitor and Premise Data analyzed almost 4,500 respondents, with a margin of error of around 3%, between December 15, 2022 and January 10, 2023. Although so far the majority (62% ) states that they will be able to find food to cover their needs, with regard to the future there is growing concern: 41% are somewhat concerned and 27% express “great concern” about being able to put food on the table in the next six months.

The greatest fears come from Turkish citizens, where 75% have some kind of more or less deep fear (44% and 31%). It is followed by Tunisia, with 73%, but the situation is not much better in the other countries. When asked about the increase in food and drink prices, the vast majority confirm the escalation: 46% speak of “much higher” prices and 36% say they are “somewhat higher”. It is worth noting the case of Egypt, where 75% of those surveyed affirm that prices are “much higher” and 25% that they are “somewhat higher”; after all, inflation in the land of the pharaohs in December was over 21.9%, compared to 19.2% the previous month. And to the increase in food, gas, electricity and housing are added, for a general panorama that causes more than one fear to its inhabitants, among other things due to the strong dependence on the Russian market (close to 80%).

In Turkey, annual inflation reached its highest level in 24 years, 84.4%, in November and fell to 64.27% in December, but it was a partial decrease thanks to a favorable coincidence with the end of the year. Food prices rose almost 1.9% in December from the previous month, while annual food inflation stood at around 78%, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute. In Iraq, where protests over rising food prices took place last year, especially in the south, the price spike is blamed on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In Yemen, ravaged by a bloody war, international organizations speak of conditions bordering on famine, while the country is more than 40% dependent on grain supplies from Moscow and kyiv.

Not surprisingly, most of those surveyed recorded a more significant increase in bread prices in the past month. Egypt is in the worst situation, with 54% speaking of a “substantial” increase in prices. In the other countries surveyed, this figure is always less than 50%, which can be partly attributed to the fact that bread consumption per capita in Cairo ranges from 150 to 180 kg, more than double the world average of 70 -80 kg.