The earthquake is of such magnitude that France will go to the polls three years earlier than expected. A victorious Jordan Bardella, the dolphin of Marine Le Penasked for the dissolution of the National Assembly after knowing his overwhelming victory (31%) in European elections with the value of a plebiscite for the management of Emmanuel Macron. To the surprise of the rest of the political forces, the president accepted the challenge and, therefore, the overwhelming defeat.
When almost a 40% of French people have shown their support for the two hard right formationsthat is, the formation of Marine Le Pen and that of her niece Marion Marechal, which exceeds 5% of the votes, the head of state has preferred, according to his spokespersons, “clarify” the political situation and call legislative elections on June 30 and July 7. He thus rejects his statements about elections that “have nothing to do with national politics.”
Nothing obliged Macron to dissolve the lower housebut wait until 2027 in minority in the Assembly after the enormous slap from the Europeans it would have meant an ordeal that could have further aggravated the crisis of “macronia”a conglomerate of centrist formations with contributions from socialist and conservative turncoats whose strength has been weakening after seven years of presidency.
Macron He thus accepts a bet that could even lead him to cohabitation with forces opposed to his policies.. The tenant of the Elysée will not be able to run for a third term in 2027; he has three years to stop the advance of Marine Le Penthe only politician confirmed as a presidential candidate.
If the trend shown at the polls continues its course, Cohabitation between President Macron and a government led by Jordan Bardella cannot be rejected as impossible.. What until now was the product of a political ghost among the “editocrats”, today seems less extravagant. Everything will depend on the results of July 7.
Bardella, Macron’s prime minister?
If RN obtains an absolute majority and, therefore, the government, Macron, from the presidency, will do everything possible to “burn” that party and disarm Le Pen before 2027, but will legitimize RN. A risk policy.
That’s why, Some opposition political leaders spoke of a “pyromaniac president”, after the Elysée decision last night. Macron will be able to campaign against the “reactionary wave” and be forced to share power with it. If Marine Le Pen’s party does not reach the parliamentary majority it would not be so serious, since he would have three years of combat to continue preparing his presidential dream. In any case, the process of “dediabolization” of RN has borne fruit and Macron has just signed it.
President Macron forces all political forcesand especially to the conglomerate that supports him, to reorganize in less than a month to define what will be his last three years in office. The left, divided between the pro-Hamas extremism of France Insoumise, led by Jean-Luc Melenchón (9.5% yesterday)a Socialist Party that wants to timidly return to the social democracy (14%)some “wokized” greens (4.9%) and a Communist Party that did not arrive yesterday 3%will have to make efforts and sacrifices to be able to meet again in the parliamentary alliance NUPES (New Popular Ecological and Social Union), the only way to dream of a consistent legislative force.
Creating a “Popular Front” to stop the “extreme right” seems difficult in less than a month, but it will not deter Jean-Luc Melenchón from the idea of becoming prime minister if the left manages to obtain a majority that no one believes in today. According to the LFI driver, “Macron has done well to dissolve the Assembly, since “he had no legitimacy to continue with his policy.”.
For the “moderate” right of “The Republicans”, who yesterday were relegated to fifth place (7.6%), the challenge for the legislative elections remains existential.
Between a Macronism that bites him on his left and the growth of Marine Le Pen on his rightyou must make an effort in creativity to maintain its strength in the Assemblybecause erosion could increase after the wave started by RN is the European ones.
What no one can deny Marine Le Pen match results at the European polls respond to what the opinion polls reflected: a majority of French people against mass immigration during Macron’s seven-year presidency; an increase in crime that those same citizens link to the previous ones, an unprecedented crisis in health care and public schools…
A rejection, also, of a certain haughty behavior towards “the deplorables” of a president that some defend as being more intelligent than the average person of his compatriots.
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