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Brazil experienced this Sunday the most disputed elections in its history since the return to democracy and the holding of direct elections in 1989. A majority of voters gave victory to Lula da Silva who becomes the first politician to govern the country three times largest and most populous in Latin America.
Two million votes gave Lula victory over Bolsonaro. Some heart-stopping elections in which the polls had not foreseen such a tight result. Lula prevailed with 50.9% of the votes. “This result is a reflection of Brazilian society, but nonetheless, no one questions the result. Numerous allies of outgoing president Bolsonaro, including former judge Sergio Moro who sentenced Lula in 2018, recognized the former president’s victory, then from that point his victory is unquestionable,” Gaspard Estrada, executive director of the Political Observatory of Latin America of Sciences Po of Paris (OPALC).
The victory is now official, yet eleven hours after the publication of the results, Jair Bolsonaro remained silent. “I think he is not assimilating this defeat well, some truck drivers who are part of Bolsonaro’s social base are blocking some roads this Monday morning, but I see it as difficult for there to be an organized political reaction from Bolsonaro, taking into account his isolation. institutional,” adds Estrada.
Bolsonaro tried to postpone the second round
On October 26, a few days before the second round, Bolsonaro had a meeting with the military leadership. He met with General Pablo Nogueira, Minister of Defense, as well as with Marco Antonio Freire, Commander of the Army. “During part of last week, his close team tried to pressure the Court to postpone the second round. His son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, said it publicly and last Wednesday the objective was to demand that this second round be postponed with the support of the military leadership, but this military leadership decided not to accompany the president”, explains the expert.
Lula obtained more than three million additional votes compared to the first round, but Bolsonaro increased his support by more than seven million ballots. “Without a doubt, Jair Bolsonaro obtained a result that went beyond what the vast majority of specialists thought, however, we must take into account the political situation and all the support, I would say illegal, the methods that President Bolsonaro used to to reach this result. There was a phenomenon of vote buying throughout the campaign with public money. On the day of the election, the federal police carried out checkpoints to prevent Lula’s voters from traveling and voting,” denounces Estrada.
Bolsonaro, ‘the only far-right leader who managed to build a popular base’
Beyond these practices, 49.1% of voters voted for Bolsonaro. “We cannot underestimate the political strength of Bolsonarism, the fact that he managed to be, in history, in the last 40 years of Brazil, he is the only far-right leader who managed to build a popular, social base, which could be categorized as follows: men from the lower middle class to the upper classes, from the evangelical confession and in particular in the south, southeast and central east of the country, which has undergone a great transformation in recent years,” he analyzes.
“Lula will have to reach out to these sectors if he wants to govern for everyone and that for me is his great challenge,” explains the OPALC director.
