Love triangle: trade between Mexico, the US and China

The Chinese presence in Mexico will be one of the topics discussed in the review of the T-MEC in 2026, so the country must say what it wants to do with its trade policy and ensure that the majority of what it imports from China is remains in the domestic market, considers Gabriela Siller, director of Economic-Financial Analysis at Banco Base.

Although nearshoring benefits Mexico, it also opens the door for Asian producers subject to higher US tariffs and restrictions to settle in the country and take advantage of the T-MEC, says an analysis by Alfredo Coutino, director for Latin America at Moody’s. Analytics.

Mexico, the largest seller to the United States

In 2023, Mexico became the main supplier of goods to the United States. The neighboring country concentrates more than 80% of Mexican exports.

Purchases from Mexico to China

China is Mexico’s second trading partner, representing 20% ​​of its imports.

Mexico wins with the US, but loses with China

While the difference between Mexico’s exports and imports with the US is a surplus, with China it is a deficit.

US purchases from China deflate

US policy seeks to reduce its dependence on the Asian country, since 2018 it declared a trade war.

What does Mexico sell to the US?

The automotive sector dominates Mexico’s exports to the United States.