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Latin America and the Caribbean lost 2.9 years of life expectancy at birth between 2019 and 2021 as a result of COVID-19, going from 75.1 years in 2019 to 72.1 years in 2021, making it the region of the world that lost more years of life expectancy due to the pandemic, revealed an analysis of recent trends in the population of the region carried out by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
According to the agency, the fall between 2019 and 2021 was greater in Central America, with a loss of 3.6 years, although an acceleration in the loss of life expectancy was evidenced in the Caribbean in 2021, as well as great inequalities between countries. .
The projections assume that in 2022 the recovery of the lost years of life expectancy will begin, due to the vaccination process and the measures taken by the countries to combat the pandemic.
The estimates and projections of recent trends in the population of Latin America and the Caribbean were prepared by the Latin American and Caribbean Demographic Center (CELADE) – Population Division of ECLAC in conjunction with the Population Division of the United Nations and given released on July 11, 2022, on the occasion of World Population Day.
According to the analysis, the population of the region went from 168.3 million people in 1950 to just over 660 million in 2022 and is expected to begin to decrease in approximately 34 years.
The region went from an average annual growth of 4.5 million people between 1950 and 1951 to a maximum of about 8.3 million at the beginning of the 1990s. As of 1991, the region’s population growth began to slow down and Currently, the population is growing at a rate of less than 5 million people a year.
The declining growth of the population, resulting mainly from the decline in fertility, will lead the region to reach its maximum population in 2056, with a total of 751.9 million people, says the analysis, which warns a break in the region’s growth trend in 2020 and 2021, as an effect of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The analysis also shows an aging population and the approach of the end of the demographic bonus. It specifies that the region is in a relatively accelerated aging stage and it is projected that by 2047 the population of people aged 60 and over will exceed that of those under 15 years of age. It is estimated that in 1967 the region’s dependency ratio began to decrease, marking the beginning of the demographic dividend, while in 2029 it is projected that the dependent population (under 15 and 65 and over) will grow more than the population of working age (from 15 to 64 years), which indicates the increase in the dependency ratio and the end of the demographic bonus in the region, a bonus that would last about 62 years. However, regional heterogeneity persists, with different rates of aging.
It adds that fertility fell below the replacement level and the average age of fertility continued to rise. The total fertility rate (TFR) of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2022 is estimated at 1.85 live births per woman, a figure that is below the replacement level since 2015. The projection of the TFR of the region indicates that it will continue to decline and will reach 1.68 in 2100.
Likewise, the average age of fertility maintained a downward trend in the region between 1950 and 2000 due to the decrease in the number of children per woman and registered its minimum value in 2000 with 26.9 years. As of 2013 it began to increase and currently a value of 27.6 years is observed, which indicates that low fertility is accompanied by a greater number of women having children at older ages. According to projections, that trend is expected to continue, with the median age reaching 30.4 years in 2100.
Regarding fertility in adolescents between 15 and 19 years of age, the estimates and projections show that Latin America and the Caribbean presents rates that are among the highest in the world, remaining only below the estimated and projected rates for Africa. Despite the above, the region, on average, has managed to increase the rate of decline in adolescent fertility since 2010, going from 73.1 children per 1,000 women aged 15-19 in 2010 to 52.1 in 2022. However, it remains a high value compared to other regions of the world and is 48% higher than the world average. Nine countries in the region are among the 60 countries with the highest adolescent fertility rate in the world in 2015-2020.
Finally, the analysis addresses the growing importance of intra-regional migration and warns that one of the main challenges for the study of migration is the availability of data sources that account for migratory patterns, flows and characteristics of the migrant population.
It specifies that Latin America and the Caribbean is characterized as a region that expels population, with a negative migratory balance from 1950 to date. In this sense, and despite the difficulties of population movement during the pandemic, mainly due to the closure of borders, the region presented negative migratory balances in 2020 and 2021, but lower than those estimated for 2019.
The dynamism with which demographic changes are taking place in the region, especially the decline in fertility and migratory movements, and recently the impact of COVID-19, lead ECLAC, together with the United Nations Population Division Together, carry out constant monitoring and review of population estimates and projections. Only with timely and quality information is it possible to prepare population estimates and projections that reflect the demographic reality of the countries of the region and the world.
