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On Sunday, October 2, general elections are held in Brazil. The elections have turned into a duel between far-right Jair Bolsonaro and former left-wing president Luiz Inazio Lula da Silva, who is leading in the polls. He could even win the elections in the first round next Sunday. Could the Amazon vote be decisive?
Report of the special envoy to Manaus, Achim Lippold
The Amazon voted for Jair Bolsonaro four years ago, but the tide has turned against him. In the state of Amazonas, Lula leads the polls overall. However, in the city of Manaus, a megalopolis of more than two million inhabitants with its weakened but still important industrial hub, Jair Bolsonaro remains very popular.
Many cars circulate with their electoral poster glued to the rear window and the national flag is hung on many balconies, a sign of political preference for the far-right president.
Bolsonaro remains popular in Manaus
For Manaus, this trend may be surprising as the city has suffered greatly from the Covid pandemic and Jair Bolsonaro has been heavily criticized for not helping hospitals that needed beds and oxygen.
And then there are the fires raging in the rainforest. You can see the smoke from Manaus. The destruction of the rainforest has worsened under President Jair Bolsonaro, but despite this, voters in the city do not seem to want to punish him.
This is not the case in the rest of Brazil, as Lula is expected to win in 14 of Brazil’s 27 states, including the two states with the most voters, São Paulo and Minas Gerais, in the center-west of the country.
Minas Gerais is interesting because it is one of the states that can swing in Brazil. And according to statistics, at least since 1950, whoever wins Minas Gerais also wins elections. Jair Bolsonaro is expected to make his way in seven states, especially in the south and some agricultural states in the north. In the other regions, the two candidates are tied.
An intense campaign finale
A few days before the elections, Lula travels the country tirelessly and is determined to win the elections in the first round. Taking into account the surveys, it is possible. For this reason, the former president calls for a “useful vote”, an appeal addressed to the voters of Ciro Gomes, a center-left candidate who currently ranks third, far behind Jair Bolsonaro.
The outgoing president is doing everything he can to get through to the second round, and his speech is well rehearsed: with the return of Lula the “thief”, as he calls him in reference to the corruption issues of the Workers’ Party, “the country will soon resemble Venezuela.”
These attacks on Lula worked well four years ago, but today this is no longer the case. In fact, one in two Brazilians disapproves of Jair Bolsonaro. With such unpopularity, it is almost impossible to win an election.
