IRAN Raisi’s death and the ‘repercussions’ on the fragile ‘Lebanese scene’

The Iranian president and the foreign minister, who left the scene with the helicopter explosion, were among those responsible for the paralysis of the Cedar Country. But the most widespread opinion in Beirut is that it will have no immediate repercussions on the rules of confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel on the southern border or on the presidential elections. The scenario would be more serious if evidence emerged of the theory of a deliberate attack.

Beirut () – With three days of mourning and the opening of a register of condolences at the Iranian embassy in the capital, official Lebanon has formally respected the death of the president and the minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic in the accident of the helicopter in which they were traveling on May 19. The head of Beirut’s diplomacy, Abdallah Bou Habib, softened his tone and ended by stating that his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, also killed in the accident, was “a friend of Lebanon.” However, as far as public opinion is concerned and at the level of the parties representing Christians and Sunnis, no one will regret the disappearance of both.

Indeed, like Hezbollah, both belong to the ultra-conservative camp that has “taken Lebanon hostage” since October 8 and has involved it in an endless war with Israel. This faction is also accused of having adapted perfectly to the presidential vacancy that has lasted since October 2022, of having blocked Parliament and of having prevented any Arab, French or American mediation, independent of Iran, from being successful. In high places there is a general opinion that Raisi’s disappearance will not have consequences in any of these areas; On the contrary, there are fears of a further hardening of the Islamic Republic’s positions.

In any case, to calculate the repercussions of this serious accident in Lebanon, it is necessary to first establish the possible consequences of this death in Iran itself, the aforementioned circles add. In fact, it is not at the level of the President of the Republic that the repercussions of the death of the two high authorities will be felt, but rather at the level of the supreme leader. As is known, the ultra-conservative Ebrahim Raisi was destined – or at least aspired – to succeed the current Grand Ayatollah, Ali Khamenei, 85 years old. His disappearance therefore creates a vacuum that could aggravate the internal contradictions of the Iranian system, exacerbating relations between the Pasdaran, the radical wing of power, and the reformist “clerics.” In this sense, in Beirut there is a general opinion that the hardest wing maintains its control over the country and that the helicopter accident will only reinforce it.

Accident or attack?

In the current state of the situation, in addition to the possible internal rivalries that will arise around Khamenei’s succession, Beirut is following with extreme attention the evolution of the investigation into the causes of the presidential helicopter accident. Sources close to Hezbollah say, on condition of anonymity, that the outlines of “what happened” remain “extremely confusing.” It is true, they say, that for the moment the authorities consider that the cause was accidental, linking it to the presence of fog, to a failure in the electronic equipment of an old helicopter. [para el que no hay repuestos debido a las sanciones occidentales] and to the slowness of rescue operations.

“If these are the facts – the sources say – it is to be expected that the regime will continue to function without changes.” “However, some do not rule out the hypothesis of an accident caused [deliberadamente]”, and consider that the stated objective was “to eliminate Raisi from the race to become Supreme Leader.” Therefore, according to this version that is also circulating in Beirut, the accident could be the result of an internal conspiracy.

Finally, there is the theory, which some Eastern European diplomatic circles in Lebanon consider “plausible” – and which represents the most serious and complex scenario also for the Country of the Cedars – of an attack perpetrated by the State of Israel. Also in this case it is a hypothesis, but – although Israel has denied being involved – there are still elements in favor of it. Firstly, the fact that the presidential helicopter was the only one of the three devices in the convoy that fell; second, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s April 16 threats that the skies of the Middle East are “open” to the Israeli Air Force, which will be able to “strike the enemy wherever they are.”

Finally, the proximity of Azerbaijan, a country with which Israel maintains close military ties and where the helicopter came from after the inauguration ceremony of a dam. Obviously, this would be the most serious version, which could trigger a serious regional conflict. However, even if its veracity could be proven, the Iranians could choose to keep it secret to preserve their strengths, as has been stressed in the aforementioned Lebanese diplomatic circles. According to a source close to Hezbollah, the supreme leader’s decision to affirm, upon hearing the news of the accident, that there will be no power vacuum, could therefore be explained by the desire to avoid any type of problem that could hinder the succession. or weaken power.