Hold on because curves are coming. And it is that, fresh from what is surely the coldest episode of winter, we are headed to 30 degrees. That is, at temperatures Typical of late May and early June. All in less than a week. No transitions, no hot cloths. Who has taken the spring?
What is going to happen? If we listen to AEMETafter “around ten days with temperatures clearly below normal for the time of year, […] next weekend will present a very different picture, with an unusually warm environment in most of the country.” If the forecasts come true, of course. And everything seems to indicate that yes, they will come true.
Aren’t we exaggerating a bit? We would like to. If the question is how anomalous will be the heat that awaits us, the answer that Iván Domínguez gives us It is very clear: Between 1979 and 2021, “the warm air mass will acquire temperature values that have only been exceeded 0.5% of the time.” That is to say, it will be a very abnormal heat for the time of year.
How is it possible? Well, as usually happens with these things, for a sum of things. The main one will be an African ridge: that is, the presence of an anticyclone to the west-southwest of the Peninsula that will provoke “an inlet of warm subtropical air in large areas of the south, center and east of the peninsula”.
To this must be added some very clear skies and light winds in a good part of the south of the peninsula. In other words, the basic ingredients of what in recent years has been called the “Iberian oven”: the phenomenon that increases surface temperatures in a large part of the country. All this translates into that, at between 8 and 12 degrees above the average that there will be in the entire Spanish territory, local effects will be added temperatures will rise even more.
What can we expect? The models point that already on Saturday the 11th there will be areas of the country (Murcia, Valencia and the Canary Islands, specifically) that will touch 30 degrees. These areas will be joined on Sunday the 12th by areas of Western Andalusia.
However, those are the warmer areas. On the other hand, we will begin to notice it quickly because lThe frosts will gradually recede of the peninsula throughout this week and for the weekend we will only be able to find them in some areas of the Pyrenees.
Uncertainties, yes; but less and less. As the days go by, the trends are more robust and everything seems to indicate that stability is assured. Since the estimates we use are for 10 days, it is possible that the hot event will soften, but it does not seem most likely.
Doubt, in fact, is in the afterlife. Can we already give up March for lost? What will happen in April? Is it possible that we find ourselves in a “year without a spring”? What impact will that have on the pitch?
Image | WXCHARTS
