How would a nuclear war affect Earth?

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought to the fore the threat of a nuclear war. Nine nations currently control more than 13,000 atomic weapons in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

In the event that two of them entered into combat, no matter what they are, and decided to use their deadly weapons, a hecatomb would occur: the Earth’s temperatures would drop ten degrees Celsius, crops would be lost throughout the world, sea ice it would block the main ports and the fishing would practically disappear. These are the main conclusions of a new study published by an international team of researchers in the journal ‘AGU Advances’.

The researchers ran multiple computer simulations to study the impacts of regional and larger-scale nuclear warfare on Earth systems given current weapons capabilities. In all simulated scenarios, nuclear firestorms would release soot and smoke into the upper atmosphere that would block the sun and would cause crop failure all over the world.

In the first month after the nuclear detonation, average global temperatures would drop by about 10 degrees Celsius, a greater temperature change than in the last Ice Age. According to a previous study, the average global temperature of the Ice Age was 6 degrees Celsius cooler than it is today. The 20th century was 14 degrees.

sea ​​transport blocked

“It doesn’t matter who bombs who. It can be India and Pakistan or NATO and Russia. Once the smoke is released into the upper atmosphere, it spreads globally and affects everyone.”says Cheryl Harrison, a professor in the Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences at Louisiana State University (LSU).

Ocean temperatures would drop rapidly and would not return to their pre-war state even after the smoke cleared. As the planet cooled, sea ice would expand by more than 15 million square km and 1.8 meters deep in some basins that block the main ports, including the port of Tianjin in Beijing, Copenhagen and Saint Petersburg.

Sea ice would spread to normally ice-free coastal regions blocking shipping in the Northern Hemisphere, making it difficult to ship food and supplies to some cities like Shanghai, where ships are unprepared to navigate sea ice.

Famine

The sudden drop in light and ocean temperatures, especially from the Arctic to the North Atlantic and North Pacific, would kill the seaweed, they are the base of the marine food web, creating a famine in the ocean. This would stop most fishing and aquaculture.

In addition, the researchers simulated what would happen to Earth’s systems if the US and Russia used 4,400 nuclear weapons of 100 kilotons to bombard cities and industrial areas, resulting in fires that spewed more than 150 billion kilograms of smoke and black carbon into the upper atmosphere. They also simulated what would happen if India and Pakistan detonated around 500 100-kiloton nuclear weapons that would spew up to 100 billion pounds of smoke and soot into the upper atmosphere.

“Nuclear war has dire consequences for everyone. World leaders have used our studies previously as an impetus to end the nuclear arms race in the 1980s, and five years ago to pass a treaty at the United Nations to ban nuclear weapons. We hope this new study will encourage more nations to ratify the ban treaty.”notes co-author Alan Robock, a professor in the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University.

Study on a possible nuclear war

This study shows the global interconnectedness of Earth’s systems, especially in the face of disturbances, whether caused by volcanic eruptions, massive forest fires, or wars. “The current war in Ukraine with Russia, and how it has affected gasoline prices, really shows us how fragile our global economy and supply chains are in the face of what may seem like regional conflicts and disruptions.”Harrison says.

The Volcanic eruptions they also produce clouds of particles in the upper atmosphere. Throughout history, these eruptions have had similar negative impacts on the planet and civilization.

“We can prevent nuclear war, but volcanic eruptions are definitely going to happen again. There is nothing we can do about it, so it is important when we talk about resilience and how to design our society, that we consider what we need to do to prepare for the inevitable climate impacts.”says Harrison. “We can and must, however, do everything possible to avoid a nuclear war. The effects are very likely to be globally catastrophic.”.

The oceans take longer to recover than the land. In the larger US-Russia scenario, ocean recovery is likely to take decades on the surface and hundreds of years in the depths, while changes in Arctic sea ice are likely to last thousands of years and are actually a ‘Little Nuclear Ice Age’. Marine ecosystems would be greatly altered by both the initial disturbance and the new state of the ocean, leading to long-term global impacts on ecosystem services such as fisheries.

Font: ABC

Reference article: https://www.abc.es/ciencia/affectaria-tierra-guerra-nuclear-pesca-cosechas-frio-20220707133949-nt.html