economy and politics

How much is the tax collection gap projected in Colombia at the end of 2024?

Taxes

The state and progress of tax collection in Colombia is one of the topics that has been mentioned the most this year in the country, given that the projections that were made for 2024 have not been met and despite the adjustments that were made In the first semester, there is still strong pressure on the Nation’s treasury, due to money that ultimately did not enter.

This led the Ministry of Finance to recently have to announce a cut of $28.3 billion to the National Budget, while the economic analysis centers classify the cut as insufficient and do not rule out that the 2025 accounts must also be adjusted, to avoid that the country fails to comply with the fiscal rule.

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Recently, the National Tax and Customs Directorate (Dian) announced that, as of October, tax collection stood at $223.8 billion, a figure that marks a balance in the red of $9.1 billion compared to $232. 9 billion that was expected to be achieved in the adjusted goal and $36.6 billion compared to the goal with which At the beginning of the year, it was $260.4 billion, mostly supported by efficiency.

According to Dian reports, 35.7% of this collection achieved was due to income withholding, that is, $79.8 billion. Likewise, 21.5% ($48.1 billion) is from activities associated with sales and 28.1% of the collection is located in the Other category, which is equivalent to $62.8 billion.

Taxes.

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“As of October 2024, the actions carried out by the missionary agencies They allowed us to raise $36.09 billion. Now, to achieve this collection, the Dian’s facilitation and control actions contributed, through the management of collection files (Sectional Directorates), $11.92 billion, which corresponds to 33.0%,” the tax authority reported in its balance.

Meanwhile, collection by persuasive collection generated $6.74 billion, which is 18.7% of what was collected, and extensive control actions resulted in income for the Nation of $11.21 billion, which corresponds to 31.1%; while the suggested statements had a contribution of $6.22 billion, which is 17.2%.

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As reported by Dian, of the total collected so far, most of the resources have gone to debt payment ($41.1 billion), followed by education ($31.3 billion), Health and social protection ($27.3 billion). ), Treasury ($23.3 billion) and the labor sector ($19.75 billion); making it clear that Debt commitments continue to be the main concern of the National Government.

Where does the collection go?

Based on these figures, researchers from Banco de Bogotá took on the task of calculating what could happen with the collection of taxes for Colombia and the income that will be received for this concept and they found that the outlook is not favorable and that finally the country will not comply with what is projected.

Indicators

Indicators

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“Despite the annual increase of 8%, tax collection was once again below the Government’s goal in October. Thus, the shortfall in income completes the $9 billion compared to the objective of the Fiscal Framework. For us, the gap would total $12 billion and $13 billion,” they explained.

This alert adds to the one recently made by Anif, where they assure that “beyond the fact that it has become clear that the income estimates of the General Budget of the Nation for this year were clearly optimistic and disconnected from economic reality, it is not “It is so clear why we see such negative figures in tax collection, since they show a divorce from economic activity so far this year.”

Although nothing can be done about what is happening and the best thing is to wait for the year to close with a drop in collection, the experts recommended that the Government take all this as an example for the PGN 2025 and avoid repeating the mistakes of the past, once again putting the country’s fiscal stability at risk.

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