How did Ecuador get to this point and what will happen after the “cross death” decreed by Lasso?

( Spanish) — After months of political tension, a rejected constitutional referendum and the beginning of a political trial, the president of Ecuador, Guillermo Lasso, signed the “death cross”, which opens a new stage of uncertainty in the country in a context in the one who suffers from the scourge of insecurity and violence.

The situation of violence in Ecuador

Since the beginning of his term, Lasso has had to face the growing problem of insecurity and violence in the country, with prison riots and advancement of drug trafficking. The president, who has little support in Congress and has struggled to build coalitions, has declared several states of emergency to, according to the official argument, curb violent crime in the country and prison riots between rival gangs.

The deadly escalation of violence has led Ecuador to record some of the highest homicide rates in the region, according to human rights groups.

The government has struggled to deal with this public safety crisis and Lasso’s popularity has plummeted amid widespread discontent.

In October 2021, Lasso decreed a state of emergency for “serious internal commotion” throughout the national territory to confront the escalation of violence and murders in the streets, which have generated fear and anxiety among the population. The president then described drug trafficking as the “main enemy” of Ecuador.

In June 2022, during a massive national strike with protests in the streets, Lasso declared a state of emergency in the provinces of Azuay, Imbabura, Sucumbíos and Orellana for 30 days to restore “public order”. In February 2023, the indigenous movement in Ecuador called for the resignation of the president and declared permanent mobilization.

Lasso says that this “paralysis” was the pretext for an impeachment attempt against him at the time, in what he described as a plan by the Assembly to “put democracy in check.”

In April, Lasso declared organized crime groups terrorists, a move that empowered the military to go after the gangs, despite allegations of corruption targeting security forces.

Violence and economic insecurity are leading more Ecuadorians to leave the country.

The dramatic rise in crime that has fueled anger against his government is a trend that predates Lasso’s presidency. Before he took office, Ecuador had already become a key transit center for cocaine due to its location between Peru and Colombia.

The political context: the opposition and the accusations against Lasso

Lasso has been the target of criticism from the political movement of former President Rafael Correa. During the presidential campaign, his relationship with the bank generated attacks from his adversaries, including criticism from the correísta Andrés Arauz, against whom he competed in the presidential runoff.

Lasso defended himself by saying that he had nothing to do with “the bank holiday” of 1999, when the Ecuadorian government froze the country’s bank deposits due to the “worst economic crisis of the 20th century,” according to former president Jamil Mahuad. After an accelerated devaluation of the local currency, the sucre, the country became a dollar. Lasso says he had nothing to do with the so-called “bank holiday.”

Correísmo created a commission in 2012 to investigate the “bank holiday” during the country’s financial crisis and concluded that Lasso did not benefit from, nor did he have any implications or responsibility in that decision of more than 20 years ago. “If I had anything to do with that decision, I would have already been prosecuted in Ecuador,” Lasso said.

During his government, Lasso has dealt with accusations against his environment.

In 2022, Lasso survived an impeachment attempt amid weeks-long protests over rising fuel and food prices.

Earlier this year, Ecuadorian media accused the president’s brother-in-law, Danilo Carrera, of corruption, including his alleged involvement in a money-for-executive scheme and bogus energy contracts. Ecuadorian prosecutors opened an investigation into the bogus power contracts in January.

Following the report, Lasso asked prosecutors to investigate Carrera for his business and personal relationship with Rubén Cherres, whom authorities tried to arrest but was found murdered in late March. Lasso has denied the existence of a corruption structure or network in his government.

has reached out to Carrera for comment on the matter. In a letter sent to local media in January, Carrera’s lawyers rejected allegations that he was the leader of a corruption scheme in public companies. He also denied claims that he obtained illicit benefits for himself or others.

In February 2023, the president did not achieve the result he expected in the sectional elections and the referendum held in Ecuador. Not only did the majority of citizens widely reject the changes to the Constitution proposed by the Government —among them the reduction in the number of assembly members, rethinking the designation of State control authorities and the extradition of criminals— but also the Citizen Revolution, the movement Led by former President Rafael Correa, it was victorious in several capitals and in small cities. Opposition parties won key positions in the Quito and Guayaquil mayors.

On May 9, with 88 votes in favor, the National Assembly of Ecuador resolved to proceed with the political prosecution against President Guillermo Lasso, for alleged participation in the crime of embezzlement. According to the opposition, the president did not terminate a contract between the Ecuadorian Oil Fleet (Flopec) and the Amazonas Tankers consortium for the transportation of petroleum derivatives, which supposedly would have represented damages to state coffers.

Lasso says that he is innocent and that those who seek to remove him want to destabilize the country and attack democracy. The president denies the existence of a structure of corruption in his government and has insisted that there are state institutions “concerned about overthrowing the government.”

“This is a contract from 2018, three years before I assumed the presidency. A process without evidence, contradictory, confusing, illegal and illegitimate. It is the mechanism to destroy the president,” Lasso said when decreeing the “cross death.”

Before the start of the impeachment trial, the president submitted a document to the Constitutional Court in which he maintains that the process adopted for impeachment is contrary to the Constitution, arguing that the Legislative Assembly failed to comply with the rules of procedure. contacted the Court to obtain its reaction to the president’s allegations, but has not received a response.

After the announcement of the so-called “cross death”, the former president Correa denied that there is “internal commotion” in Ecuador, the argument for which President Guillermo Lasso signed the decree with which he dissolved Congress. “He just couldn’t buy enough assemblymen to save himself [de la destitución]. In any case, it is the great opportunity to get rid of Lasso, his government and his rented assembly members, and recover the homeland,” Correa said on Twitter.

What about “cross death”?

The so-called “cross death”, protected by the Ecuadorian Constitution, allows the Executive and Legislative powers to dissolve only once in the first three years of the presidential term.

That means that Lasso can govern by decree-laws of economic urgency while elections for president and legislators are held. “I have requested the CNE to immediately call legislative and presidential elections for the rest of the respective periods,” Lasso said.

The National Electoral Council of Ecuador would have to issue the call within a period of seven days and the elections would take place in no more than 90 days.

After Lasso’s decree, the vice president of the National Electoral Council of Ecuador, Enrique Pinta, said that the body “should apply all its experience to execute the process in the proposed times, just like the political organizations.” Pinta confirmed that in the elections assembly members and president of the republic will be elected.

Given an electoral perspective, political analyst Jorge Ortiz told that Lasso knows his chances are very slim. “The problem is that his popularity ratings are very low and declining, so the possibility of him getting re-elected is practically nil,” the analyst said.

After the “cross death”, Lasso signed a first presidential decree to strengthen the economy of families, with which it will lower taxes for families, popular businesses, taxi drivers and artisans.

Earlier, on a national chain, Lasso said that this first decree of economic urgency will benefit at least 460,000 families. Nearly US$200 million is expected to “return to their homes,” according to the president.

The measure will take effect if Ecuador’s Constitutional Court approves it, Lasso said.

With information from Ana María Cañizares, Sebastián Jiménez, Fernando del Rincón, Gabriela Frías, Tara John, Karol Suárez, Abel Alvarado, Andrés Oppenheimer and Valentina González Galvis