The president of Indonesia – who took office last month – despite defending a policy of non-alignment between rival powers, has signed a series of agreements with China in which he appears to have implicitly recognized Beijing’s claims. One of the topics Prabowo discussed with Joe Biden. Analysts speak of a serious mistake by an inexperienced administration.
Jakarta () – After an official visit to China from November 8 to 10, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto flew to the United States yesterday to meet with the outgoing president, Joe Biden. These trips, along with the congratulatory call to Donald Trump that posted on social mediaindicate the will to maintain a policy of non-alignment between the two rival powers. However, perhaps without realizing it, Prabowo has leaned towards China by signing a series of cooperation agreements, of which he has had to render accounts to Washington.
Son-in-law of President Suharto and commander of the Indonesian special forces “Kopassus”, the United States had previously denied Prabowo a visa due to accusations of human rights violations in East Timor and the independence province of Papua. The change of course came in 2020 with the first Trump administration, which invited Prabowo as Indonesia’s defense minister, a position he held until last month, when he was sworn in as president after winning the February election.
Although Trump’s return to the White House is imminent, Prabowo discussed strategic issues with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and CIA Director William Burns, focusing primarily on the South China Sea, where tensions are common. between China and the countries of Southeast Asia. Biden expressed hope that the two countries can cooperate for a “free and open Indo-Pacific within the framework of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations,” or ASEAN. These statements reflect Washington’s bipartisan interest in promoting relations with Indonesia to curb Chinese ambitions.
In previous statements Prabowo had stated that he respected “both China and the United States”, whom he considered “good friends”, and that he intended to maintain the historic “foreign policy of non-alignment”.
But last week Prabowo has been widely criticized for signing a controversial cooperation agreement with China in the South China Sea (as well as contracts worth $10 billion) that some say recognizes Beijing’s sovereignty claims over the waters in dispute. Until now, all other countries in the region (the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei) had always avoided signing joint development agreements proposed by China, because they feared ending up implicitly recognizing what is called the “nine-dash line”, the border that (only) according to Beijing it would delimit the areas of its competence in the South China Sea.
In the joint statement released after his visit, Prabowo stressed that the two countries had “reached an important understanding on joint development in areas of overlapping claims,” agreeing to establish an Intergovernmental Commission, “in accordance with their respective laws and regulations in force.” .
The problem with this formulation lies in the reference to “matching claims“Indonesia had never accepted the Chinese version that Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone was within the “nine-dash line,” but had simply continued to exercise its sovereignty over that area, which includes the Natuna Islands. controversial, the Foreign Minister was quick to clarify that Jakarta’s position has not changed and based on international law it continues to consider the Chinese requests unfounded. However, one of the economic agreements signed by Prabowo refers to the joint development of the. fishing and hydrocarbon exploration near the Natuna Islands.
Some experts pointed out that (perhaps even implicitly) Prabowo would have given Beijing “a great victory”, betraying “Indonesia’s national interest.” Indonesia’s statement eliminates the possibility of signing an agreement between ASEAN and China and could also have repercussions on the foreign policy of other Southeast Asian countries. Beijing, ignoring the Foreign Ministry’s “corrections,” will likely stick to its own interpretation of the joint statement.
Several observers They consider that this is a mistake typical of “an inexperienced and incompetent administration.” Indeed, Prabowo has chosen Sugiono (in Indonesia it is not customary to always have a surname) as foreign minister, who only entered politics in 2019, while his predecessor, Retno Marsudi, had a long career as a diplomat. “A monumental mistake made by a very inexperienced Foreign Minister,” they commented. other analysts. Mistake that could have a major impact on relations with China (and the United States) in the near future.
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