A military invasion on European territory is something unusual since Czechoslovakia in the summer of 1968. The Balkan wars of the 1990s were something else, even though they the consequences of the various interventions have left an indelible mark. Since Ukraine decided that its interests were moving in the direction of the European Union and not as a subsidiary part of the old Russian empire, its fate was cast. First they took Crimea, vital to Russia’s economy and defense. Then the bordering provinces of the southeast. In the end, the destruction of the new State with the intention of placing an addicted government in it. War.
Some people seem to long for the times of the First Great War, when Pío Baroja was a Germanophile and Unamuno a Francophile and nothing happened because here we fought with phrases and words do not kill. Nothing to do with what we are facing because we are involved in a fight that affects Europe and the United States, and we are part of one and allies of the other. Writing about the obvious is like getting into a puddle from which it is impossible not to get splashed.
Geopolitics is a specialty of history that requires a cool head and an anxious heart, from which it follows that the naive or the simple should refrain. When geopolitics enters, the analysis becomes complicated and we become cruel. The geopolitical interests of Russia and the United States collide in a war in which neither is going to give in and in which “ours”You, Ukrainians, gamble more than anyone. Being Ukrainian right now is like becoming the victim of a war against an enemy used to winning, because they have the means to do so, even hiding their partial defeats. It is indisputable that any pacifist initiative after a year of invasion grants the benefit of victory to whoever has unleashed the war. ç
Geopolitics is a specialty of history that requires a cool head and an anxious heart, from which it follows that the naive or the simple should refrain
If we affirm that a ceasefire must be imposed at this point in the battle, we would be defending the status quo. It would be tantamount to acknowledging fait accompli. A position so reactionary that it would turn the alleged desire for peace into an alibi and in which appealing to other aggressions only serves to load us with reasons to contemplate the massacres undaunted. The frivolous defenders of ceasefire and peace they already become conservatives when not admirers of the forcefulness of the invader.
If there is something that seems indisputable, it is that Russia is not going to lose the war and that it will be too difficult for Ukraine to maintain its territory no matter how much aid is provided that will make it an eternal dependent. The waterlogged terrain of geopolitics is opening up more and more and the inevitable ceasefire, which will end up making its way, will be as slow as the invader endures and the victims endure. Russian tyranny is not weakened and the United States government does not contemplate any other limit than the 2024 presidential elections. The elderly Biden has fallen again on the stairs of the plane when he was leaving Poland, but like so many things we hardly know about it. What do we do with the alleged attack on the Nord Stream gas pipeline? What did journalist Seymour Hersh describe? Clarifying it would be like facilitating the enemy’s work, say the same people who try to dirty the trajectory of the revealer of the My Lay massacre, in that unmentionable Vietnam war today. Much less than the state terrorism of the Nord Stream, half of Europe was moved, but then it was called the “Dreyfus case” and reality did not travel through the networks.
The Chinese Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, has left us some phrases for bronze in Moscow: “Crises constantly appear, but in crises there are opportunities, and opportunities also turn into crises. This is a historic experience.” The most current Marx, Groucho, would have added “and two boiled eggs” although it broke the snapshot of the topic on millennial cultures. That of Chu-en-Lai comes to mind when journalists asked him in Paris for his opinion on the French Revolution, “we still need time to assess it” (I don’t know why some self-proclaimed statesmen, like Jordi Pujol, attribute the anecdote to Mao-tse-Tung, who was never in France; perhaps “the man who whispered to the horses” had hardly any idea of the abilities of the number two of the Chinese revolution). The anecdotary of geopolitics for youtubers could not miss the contribution of the North American vice president, Kamala Harris, for whom the Russian invasion tries to “undermine a world order founded on the rules of law.” Man, what do you want me to say?
The most current Marx, Groucho, would have added “and two boiled eggs” even if he broke the snapshot of the topic on millennial cultures.
Invasion and war have accelerated a multipolar world, meaning that once two great powers dominated and now four appear. Our metropolitan and Europeanist vision did not go beyond the Berlin-Paris-London and Washington line, it still does not go much further except in merchandise, but in our minds China and India are still something exotic. On the Ukrainian victimizer we will introduce new elements that will cause fear and therefore conservatism. The most extreme right operates along the lines of a left that lost its horizon many years ago, among other things due to the ideological and economic weight of that same Russia that is now encouraging a return to values worthy of a papal encyclical prior to Vatican II; which is a lot of change for so little militant space. It is understandable that there are so many seekers of ethnic, sexual and even linguistic identities. When the world becomes more complex than usual, there are attempts, some of which are successful., for returning to the millennial faiths. Whether Vladimir Putin gets along better with Silvio Berlusconi or Donald Trump has little to do with geopolitics. They refer to power, who holds it and the way in which they have achieved and maintain it.
Neither reactionary pacifism nor warrior ardor. We must be with the invaded country even if this translates into the pathetic gesture of sending him some tanks abandoned in a junkyard in Zaragoza. We are a country smaller than Ukraine and with fewer natural resources until the invasion turned everything upside down. A ceasefire will be reached because beyond that it is impossible as it is the first nuclear power in the world. We are where we are and it is convenient not to be deceived with grandiloquence not to confess that the puddle of war will splash us in the puddle and that worse times will come.