Early on Wednesday, January 1, 2025, the flow of Russian gas was definitively interrupted which for 40 years has supplied Europe through an important gas pipeline that crosses Ukraine. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, had already warned in advance that, due to the Russian war of aggression, he would not renew the contract with the Kremlin that allowed the transit of hydrocarbons through the country and that expired in the New Year. “It is Moscow’s biggest defeat“said the president.
This decision, anticipated and known by the European Union, is part of the West’s efforts to undermine Moscow’s ability to finance its war machine and limit its energy influence in Europe. According to agency calculations Reutersthis year, Moscow could stop earning about 5 billion dollars in sales through Ukraine’s infrastructure, according to an average Russian government gas price forecast of $339 per 1,000 cubic meters.
However, Ukraine will also be affected by the closure. And not only because every year he won between 800 and 1 billion dollars a year in transit feesbut because Russia can be expected to respond (as it has done on numerous occasions) by bombing Ukraine’s vast energy infrastructure network during the remaining cold months.
Is Europe ready?
The Ukrainian gas pipeline system, inherited from the Soviet era, had for decades been a key artery for the Russian state company Gazprom to export gas to Austria, Hungary, Slovakia and Moldova, among others. This flow was sustained thanks to a transit contract signed on December 30, 2019 between Gazprom and the Ukrainian Naftogaz Ukrainy, two years before the start of the large-scale invasion.
Originally designed for transport Siberian gas towards European markets, this has been the last major Russian gas corridor to Europe after the sabotage in 2022 of the Nord Stream – which connects Russia with Germany under the Baltic Sea – and the closure of the route that crossed Belarus to Poland.
In fact, now only the pipeline remains TurkStreamwhich connects Russia with Türkiye through the Black Sea and then distributes the gas to Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. The capacity of this infrastructure, however, is limited.
It is true that since the start of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the European Union has managed significantly reduce your dependence of Russian gas. In 2023, the block received a total of 14.65 bcm (billions of cubic meters) of gas, compared to the 40 bcm it imported before the conflict. And, as of December 1, 2024, imports already reached 13.7 bcm, according to a report published by the European Commission.
However, despite this general decline, some countries, such as Austria and Slovakiaremained highly dependent on Russian gas from this pipeline, which represented approximately 60% of their demand.
Brussels claims to be “well prepared” for change and affirms that countries can face this new energy scenario. Austria also believes in this – which says it has “done its homework” – but not Slovakia. In fact, in his New Year’s speech, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, very close to the Kremlin, warned that stopping gas transit “will have a drastic impact on the EU, but not on the Russian Federation.”
Russian President Putin meets with Slovak Prime Minister Fico in Moscow.
Not content with warning, the president, who maintains that his country could lose up to 500 million euros annually in transit fees, threatened “reciprocal measures” against Ukraine, how to cut off the power supplyduring a controversial visit to his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, at the end of December.
The Czech Republic, Hungary, Italy and Slovenia will be other countries that will have to get used to the lack of Russian gas supply through this route. Moldova, a non-EU country that is already suffering the consequences, must also do so. Especially in Transnistria, a separatist region in eastern Moldova supported by Russia that began the year without heat or hot water in its homes and with industry paralyzed.
Will prices rise?
Although analysts do not expect an increase in gas prices because the EU has been preparing for this scenario for some time, the truth is that the Dutch TTF index, the reference in Europe, is already touching the 50 euros/MWha level that has not been seen since November 2023.
Uncertainty triggers speculation in a market that is especially sensitive to any movement that occurs in geopolitical relations.
Esa subida no responde a la situación real. Europa ha diversificado sus fuentes, aumentando las importaciones de gas a Estados Unidos y Catar, y además los almacenes llegaron a estar al 100% en el mes de agosto, y ahora, en pleno invierno se sitúan de media en niveles bastante altos, alrededor del 80%.
Según se explicaba en este periódico, “los precios han seguido siendo extremadamente sensibles a cualquier riesgo percibido en la producción”. Por ello, y aunque los 15.000 millones de metros cúbicos de gas que Rusia envía a través de Ucrania cada año representan menos del 5% de las necesidades totales de Europa, la pérdida de una de las últimas rutas para el gas ruso pondrá más presión en un mercado de gas ya de por sí ajustado, sostienen los analistas de Energy Aspects Ltd.
El último gasoducto: TurkStream
El gasoducto que pasa por Turquía, el último en funcionamiento que conecta Rusia con Europa, tiene una capacidad limitada, y en 2024 ha estado en sus niveles récord respecto a los últimos cinco años.
Dos de los principales beneficiarios del gas a través de TurkStream son Hungría y Serbia, un país no perteneciente a la UE, que mantienen vínculos relativamente estrechos con Moscú. Pero también Turquía.
Evolución del flujo de gas a Europa por gasoductos rusos
Gracias al cierre del gasoducto por Ucrania, se ha convertido un activo geopolítico que fortalece su posición como centro energético y su posicionamiento estratégico. No solo puede llegar gas ruso, también el de Azerbaiyán, Irán y otros proveedores potenciales podría fluir hacia Europa.
Ahora el propósito es maximizar el uso de la capacidad técnica firme disponible entre Turquía y Bulgaria en los puntos de interconexión. El aumento de la utilización en estos puntos podría aportar alrededor de 4 bcm de gas adicional al sistema.
Cuatro nuevas rutas
Para hacer frente al nuevo escenario, la Comisión Europea ha propuesto cuatro rutas alternativas para la importación del gas. La primera que concibe es a través de Alemania, que recientemente ha expandido las terminales de gas natural licuado (GNL) que llegan por barco y de sus importaciones de gas por tubería desde Noruega, Países Bajos y Bélgica. Desde allí, asegura la UE, se podrán inyectar volúmenes extras de gas a Austria, Chequia y Eslovaquia por infraestructuras que ya existen.
La segunda de las opciones es facilitar el acceso de gas noruego y de GNL procedente de Estados Unidos y Ucrania desde Polonia a Eslovaquia a través del interconector entre ambos países y desde ahí hacia otros países europeos, según recoge la agencia Efe.
Una tercera alternativa contempla el transporte de gas desde Italia hacia Austria, y de allí a Eslovaquia y Eslovenia, utilizando exclusivamente las capacidades actuales disponibles. Finalmente, la denominada ruta Trans-Balcánica permite el flujo de gas desde Grecia, Turquía y Rumanía hacia el norte, proporcionando combustible no solo a los países del centro y este de la UE, sino también a Ucrania y Moldavia.
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