In the poly-crisis context of 2022, COP27 negotiators must be prepared to tackle thorny issues and move from goal setting to policy implementation. As the United Nations points out, the window of opportunity is closing.
After a year of catastrophes and crises, the time has come for the negotiators of 197 countries and the EU meet again to discuss the systemic calamity of our present and possible future.
World leaders and thousands of national representatives are meeting these days in the Egyptian town of Sharm el-Sheikh for COP27, the annual UN climate negotiations forum.
Some members of civil society, including Greta Thunbergannounced that they will not attend the COP to condemn the slow pace of progress in the negotiations and to protest the human rights record of this year’s COP presidency.
And there is no doubt that climate action is moving too slowly.
The climate catastrophes of 2022 — the droughts in China and Europe, the floods that have affected the lives of 33 million Pakistanis, and the floods, droughts and forest fires in many african countries, to name a few — are telltale signs, occurring with “just” 1.1 degrees Celsius of warming. Just as it has saying this month the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), the window of opportunity to stabilize the climate is rapidly closing.
COP27 is a crucial opportunity to prevent that window from being slammed shut. But the preparations for this conference have been tremendously difficult. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had huge security, economic, energy and food consequences, leaving governments and citizens struggling to find solutions. Amid this chaos, an important question loomed: would the fight against climate change and progress in the energy transition become new casualties of Russia’s war?
According to the most recent data from the International Energy Agency, the answer is No.
“Would the fight against climate change and progress in the energy transition become new casualties of Russia’s war? The answer is no.”
Rather, the opposite has happened: the energy crisis and the high prices of fossil fuels caused by the use of energy as a weapon they have contributed to governments adopting new measures to limit their dependence on these fuels, potentially accelerating the energy transition. For the first time, fossil fuel demand is expected to peak or stabilize across all IEA scenarios.
For the EU, in the short term, this trend is not so visible: some Member States that had promised the end of coal have restarted the plants to guarantee the supply of electricity. However, in the medium and long term, the impact of Russia’s brutal war against Ukraine has led the EU to reinforce its decarbonisation path.
The combination of REPowerEUPlan launched in the face of Russian aggression, and the current momentum of Legislation Fit for 55 this approaching the EU to the path to reach a reduction 55% — or even plus — of emissions in 2030.
The agreement is not yet closed: many policies are still on the negotiating tables, and The EU must remain vigilant to prevent its actions to ensure short-term security of supply from entrenching a high-carbon future. Overall, however, the EU is leading the way in turning climate ambition into reality.
Despite all the bad news this year, it seems that some light is emerging. Climate change has not disappeared from policymakers’ agendas, as it did after the 2008 crisis. And the Paris mechanism seems to be working: before 2015, our collective trajectory was for 3.5 degrees of warming by 2100; seven years later, this figure has dropped considerably.
But much more is needed, both in ambition and in application. On ambition, if all national climate plans (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, in climate jargon) are implemented, we we headed to a future of 2.4 or 2.6 degrees, far exceeding the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets of 1.5 or 2 degrees.
Yet even that dangerously hot future rests on the premise that governments will pursue the policies necessary to achieve the CRC’s goals. And today, this is not yet the case: if the current policies are executed without any change, the world would be 2.8 degrees warmest in 2100.
“COP27 will not focus solely on the new emission reduction targets. The time has come to ensure its implementation.»
Setting goals, especially long-term ones for 2050, 2060, or 2070, is easier than designing and executing the policies and measures to put economies on track to meet those goals. Therefore, the COP27 will not only focus on the new emission reduction targets for 2030 or 2050: in Egypt, also hThe time has come to ensure its implementation.
But while negotiators focus on mitigating climate change to avoid its worst effects, the warming we have accumulated has already had major consequences. Countries and populations will have no choice but to adapt to their changing climates, and vulnerable states with little historical responsibility for climate change are suffering the most from its impacts, while also having the least capacity to adapt. Although adaptation is one of the fundamental pillars of the Paris Agreement, nhas never received the same level of attention as reducing emissions. At this COP, which is being held in Africa, it is sure to be high on the agendas.
The need to urgently intensify action on both mitigation and adaptation will undoubtedly connect with an important elephant in the room: climate finance.
The developed countries they have not kept their promise to provide developing countries with $100 billion a year in climate finance by 2020, but even this figure falls far short of actual financing needs. In addition, the system of multilateral development banks must be updated to provide the necessary financing for current climate realities.
Beyond financing, there is the issue of loss and damage: material and immaterial losses from climate change, which cannot be recovered, and for which some vulnerable states seek compensation. This question, which leads much time simmering in the UNFCCC negotiations, is one of the most likely to enter into boiling during COP27. The EU and the US have shown willingness to debate this issue, but it will take a skilful diplomacy to address the issue.
Although climate change has not disappeared from the agenda in the midst of the 2022 polycrisis, the COP27 agenda is very busy and many thorny debates are expected. Sharm el-Sheikh negotiators face a daunting but vital mission. Hesitating is not an option.
Article originally published in English on the website of Carnegie Europe. It is part of ENGAGEa project that examines the challenges of global governance and the EU’s external action.
