confrontation between the ruling party and the opposition

Two women are leading the polls: the current governor, Yuriko Koike, backed by the Liberal Democratic Party, and Renho Saito, who has the support of the Constitutional Democratic Party, although both are running as independents. While the ruling party continues to come under fire for recent scandals, the opposition does not appear sufficiently united. Tomorrow’s vote could set the course for the next parliamentary election.

Tokyo (/Agencies) – Tomorrow, elections for the Tokyo metropolitan government will be held, an event that, according to the local mediacould become a preview of the next parliamentary elections scheduled for autumn 2025.

Despite the presence of 56 candidates (many of whom They only seek visibility), two women are leading the polls: the incumbent governor, Yuriko Koike, who is seeking a third term and is supported by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) although she is officially standing as an independent; and Renho Saito, commonly known only by her first name, a former television journalist, supported by the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) and the Japanese Communist Party. A controversial election that saw her lose the support of one of Japan’s largest trade unions, Rengo, which is staunchly anti-communist.

Koike, 71, a former defense and environment minister, became governor in 2016, the first woman in Japan to hold the post, and after dealing with the pandemic and the recent Olympics, has promised new family-friendly measures to combat the birth rate in Tokyo, which is at 0.99, the lowest of Japan’s 47 prefectures.

Renho, 56, also said he wanted to work with businesses to promote better work-life balance and make Tokyo “a city where young people, regardless of their circumstances, can study, work, marry and have children, and can choose.”

The city of Tokyo has about 14 million inhabitants and generates a GDP of about 100 billion dollars, equal to that of small European nations.

Renho was the first woman to be appointed leader of the CPC in 2016. After leaving the party, she ran as an independent. The daughter of a Japanese mother and a Taiwanese father, she had been the subject of a scandal in 2016 for revealing that she had dual nationality, in a country that only requires a person to choose one at the age of 22.

But the Liberal Democratic Party is also under fire for scandals involving irregular fundraising by some members of the faction previously led by former premier Shinzo Abe. A victory for Koike, who remains ahead by around six percentage points, could therefore strengthen the Liberal Democratic Party, which will have to choose a new party secretary in the coming months. At the end of September, the mandate of current prime minister Fumio Kishida expires, whose approval rating in recent weeks has hit a record low of 20%.

According to analysts, the only chance the opposition has of defeating the SDP is to form a united front against the conservative party, an eventuality that seems remote at the moment. However, the CPC, in the April by-elections, took all three seats that previously belonged to the SDP, and the candidates that were elected also had the support of the Japan Innovation Party, the second political party in the opposition after the CPC, but which did not field a candidate in the elections for the capital prefecture.

The leader of the Democratic Party, Kenta Izumi, has been criticised so far for failing to propose economic policies that could win the public’s trust, but instead limiting himself to attacking the ruling party. He too, like Kishida, could be replaced as party leader in September, especially if Koike wins tomorrow’s election.

In fact, experts have pointed out that, despite its success in the three seats of the April by-electionssupport for the CPC stands at around 13% and that of the SDP at 25%, while the number of undecided voters has risen to 35%. The return of a charismatic figure like Yoshihiko Noda could perhaps change things. Prime Minister for nearly a year before Shinzo Abe came to power, he enjoys the favour of several members of his party.

A Renho victory, on the other hand, could consolidate Izumi’s position and even, According to some peopleto promote their promotion as the next premier.