economy and politics

China-Japan: 50 years of dialogue between tensions and misgivings

China and Japan silently and practically separately commemorate the 50th anniversary of the reestablishment of diplomatic relations. A dialogue dominated by tension and mistrust, with Beijing’s territorial claims over Taiwan and the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands as a pillar of discord.

September 29 is a special date on the agendas of Beijing and Tokyo. That day marks the anniversary of the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan, signed by Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai and his Japanese counterpart Kakuei Tanaka in Beijing in 1972. Fifty years later, tension and mutual misgivings continue to dominate that dialogue. The differences over Taiwan, the atrocities committed by the Japanese imperial troops during World War II and the Chinese territorial claims over the Diaoyu Islands, called Senkaku by the Japanese, are so deep that the two governments have chosen to shelve the plans to celebrate the anniversary. A situation that reveals the tension that exists between the two countries.

The postponement was also influenced by the visit that the president of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, made to Taiwan last August. A fleeting trip to which Beijing responded with unprecedented live-fire maneuvers around Taiwan, which showed that it can impose a blockade on the island. In addition, five of its missiles landed in waters of Japan’s exclusive economic zone, which China does not recognize. This provoked complaints from Tokyo and contributed to breaking bridges of dialogue between the two countries that were barely holding.

However, the reality is that the relationship between China and Japan has changed over the last half century. When Zhou and Tanaka met in Beijing, both countries were keen to normalize relations after 23 years of mutual isolation to counter the threat from the neighboring Soviet Union. The power of Moscow intimidated a China immersed in the chaos of the Cultural Revolution, with a low economy and famine in some areas of the country, and worried a Japan in full economic explosion.

“Both countries maintain deep commercial and cultural ties, but mistrust continues to reign between their leaders”

Now, both countries maintain deep commercial and cultural ties, but mistrust continues to reign between their leaders. In this time, Tokyo has given Beijing more than 25 billion dollars in development aid and China has become Japan’s largest trading partner. But the tension that marked the meeting between Zhou and Tanaka remains. In 1972, the main sticking points were Japan’s apology for aggression in the world war and differences over Taiwan. In contrast, the dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, which Tokyo administers and Beijing claims as part of Taiwan, was not addressed at Zhou’s request, according to the Japanese foreign ministry.

In the 21st century, the points of friction are the same as then, but the situation has worsened due to the evolution of the Asian giant and its negotiating intransigence. China is no longer that underdeveloped country closed to the world. It has become the second largest economy on the planet and its growing military potential worries its neighbors and worries the US and NATO. This development, coupled with an assertive foreign policy (especially with regard to Taiwan and its claims in the South China Sea), is generating unrest throughout the Pacific.

Beijing’s show of might has prompted Japan to consider China a threat to its security. Reflection reinforced by the missiles that fell into its waters during the intimidation maneuvers against Taiwan and by the growing Chinese naval activity around the Senkaku/Diaoyu archipelago. Some islands that the US ceded to Japan to administer them in 1972 and that were about to provoke a confrontation between the two countries in 2012, when Tokyo nationalized them, with the consequent anger of Beijing.

“For Beijing, recovering Taiwan and the Senkaku/Diaoyu archipelago means having the access key from the East China Sea to the South China Sea and, ultimately, having the exit to the Pacific under control”

The conflict over the Senkaku/Diaoyu has an enormous geostrategic background and has become the main obstacle in the dialogue between the two countries. For Beijing, recovering Taiwan and this archipelago means having the access key from the East China Sea to the South China Sea and, ultimately, having the exit to the Pacific under control. A horizon that for Japan would pose a threat to its trade flows, which explains the growing concern and intransigence of Tokyo in the face of Beijing’s proposals.

Japan, for its part, has also not remained static in the face of the modernization of the Chinese armed forces. It has also opted to increase its defense budget and its prime minister, Fumio Kishida, has promised to double military spending in the next five years and has strengthened its ties with the US in terms of security. These initiatives have stirred up Beijing and have further cooled relations between the two Asian powers.

A distance that has been aggravated not only by the stagnation of high-level visits in recent years, but also by Chinese accusations against Tokyo of trying to isolate the Asian giant through its alliance with Washington. Recrimination that the Japanese government rejects, while recalling that it shares the same strategic interests with the US, in addition to the values ​​of freedom and democracy.

And it is that Japan is part, along with the US, of several strategic alliances in the Pacific that have developed in parallel to the rapid transformation of China. A cooperation that is reflected through the QUAD, a security alliance made up of Japan, the US, India and Australia, as well as Five Eyes + 3, a cooperation system of the intelligence services of the US, Australia, Canada, UK, New Zealand, France, Japan and South Korea. Alliances that disgust China, which accuses them of conspiring to stop its expansion.

In short, tense and suspicious relations reveal that half a century has not been enough for China and Japan to build solid cooperation based on dialogue and mutual trust. The future of the Pacific and, perhaps, of the entire world depends on the will of its leaders to redirect this situation.

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