CHINA Despite a worse performance than his predecessors, Xi Jinping will get a third term

The Chinese leader opened the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party yesterday. In the face of slowing economic growth, rising debt, youth unemployment and demographic decline, Xi offers many slogans but few recipes. With the letter of nationalism (and of Taiwan) a new element of cohesion between the regime and Chinese society is sought.

Rome () – Xi Jinping is heading for a historic third term in power. He will stand above his latest predecessors, even though the management of Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin were better, at least from an economic point of view. And ultimately, this is what interests the Chinese to accept the undisputed leadership of the Communist Party (PCC).

The 20th Congress of the PCC was inaugurated yesterday. At the opening, Xi presented a report on his second five-year term at the head of the Party (and the State): slogans abounded, but there were few recipes to solve the country’s problems. Between October 22 and 23, the meeting will conclude, which will draw a new geography of power in China, with Xi still at the helm.

The Chinese president, and general secretary of the Party, foresees a national economy for the next five years that offers opportunities and guarantees a fair distribution of wealth. However, this year’s GDP figures promise to be uninspiring for the supreme leader and the population. The draconian policy aimed at eradicating Covid-19, the repression of large high-tech companies and the real estate crisis will not allow the objective of annual economic growth of 5.5% to be achieved (with the economic slowdown, it will possibly be around 3%) .

In recent days, it was emphasized that China has doubled its economy in the 10 years of Xi’s leadership. Even so, it is worth mentioning that in the decade of Jiang Zemin (1993-2002) it multiplied by more than three, while during the double term of Hu Jintao (2003-2012) it multiplied by almost six. Like Xi, both leaders had to deal with serious economic crises: Jiang with the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998; Hu to the American mortgage crisis of 2007-2008.

On the other hand, in the Xi era, debts were accumulated, especially from provincial governments. According to the calculations of ReutersIn the first eight months of 2022, the country’s 31 provinces registered a total deficit of 6,740,000 million yuan (960,000 million euros).

Eradicating absolute poverty was one of Xi’s main goals and a reason to brag in 2021, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the CCP. However, a study of South China Morning Post reveals that last year 13% of the Chinese population was still in need.

In addition, there are doubts about the veracity of the official statistics. Observers point out that local leaders often falsify data, passing off family and friends as poor in order to get state subsidies. Premier Li Keqiang has repeatedly lashed out at provincial leaders for presenting an unrealistic picture of the situation.

In his speech, Xi insists on national “renewal”, but youth unemployment remains stable at 20%. This is not only a problem for the many young graduates looking for work, but also for people who will retire in the next few years.

The economic slowdown combined with the demographic decline forces Xi to find a new element of cohesion between the Party and Chinese society. The nationalist card, with the feat of reconquering Taiwan, could offer him an opportunity. However, it remains a risk, “uncharted” terrain for a regime that for decades has relied on the economic wheel to guarantee internal stability. Not to mention that the geopolitical turmoil created by the Russian invasion of Ukraine could present the “new Mao Zedong” with a challenge of no small consequence on its northern borders: a Russia in chaos and at risk of disintegration.