Possible peace talks in Ukraine could lead to an easing of sanctions, which would consequently give Russia the opportunity to once again strengthen its influence in the region. Where China’s activism also increases. The crux of relations with Tehran.
Astana () – The imminent inauguration of Donald Trump’s presidency in Washington raises different reflections in all latitudes, due to the consequences on the balance of world geopolitics. The countries of Central Asia, in the search for a new definition in commercial and political relations at a global level, are no exception, and there is no shortage of fears of being marginalized again by the political options of the world’s largest superpower. Cabar.Asia experts direct their attention to this issue, who generally believe that United States policy will not change much with respect to the region, although it does not occupy the first place in the White House’s concerns.
Rustam Burnašev, professor at the Kazakh-German University, does not believe that the US will do much in Central Asia: “it is not a priority for them, but US policy in this regard is quite stable and will not change with the change of administration” . The main demand of the United States to the Central Asian countries is compliance with the sanctions against Russia to prevent dual-use exports, civil and military. In the case of the United States, the “5+1” format remains a purely diplomatic mode, at the level of foreign ministers and not heads of state, without many prospects for economic agreements.
Possible peace talks in Ukraine could lead to an easing of sanctions, which would consequently give Russia the opportunity to once again strengthen its influence over Central Asia. Burnašev believes, however, that “the scenarios can be very different, it depends on which of them actually materializes, and after all Moscow’s influence in these countries has never really diminished in recent years.” Rather, Washington’s strategy could become more aggressive toward China, which in turn could become more activist in Central Asia.
In 2021, the Trump Administration had expressed its support for the development of the trans-Caspian gas corridor, which links Turkmenistan with Azerbaijan, but it is a chain of projects in which China and Iran are also closely involved. It is difficult to predict how they will develop in later stages, but in general experts are convinced that “everyone benefits from these prospects, including Russia, which has several possibilities of connecting to them.” Regarding American participation in these projects, many doubt that the United States has the intention of investing many resources in them, since in fact it is the most distant partner with respect to the size of Eurasia.
The possibility of the United States toughening sanctions against Iran, a crucial partner for Tajikistan in particular, is also being considered. In any case, relations with Tehran remain quite undefined, and even so there could be unforeseeable developments. Another important aspect refers to respect for human rights, an issue on which Trump seems less sensitive than his predecessor, and there is fear of a reduction in support programs for civil society, although in this field “a lot depends on the institutions, more than personal charisma.
The question of Iran, some experts observe, will depend a lot on how the crisis in the Middle East evolves and on the credibility of the ceasefire decided in Gaza in recent days. A non-secondary aspect refers to oil prices, which Trump will undoubtedly try to lower, as is clear from his political and economic programs, a factor that could weaken the Russian economy even more than the sanctions.
A possible partial US withdrawal from activities in Central Asia, observers add, will require greater EU commitment in the region, trying to balance the influences of Russia and China, although the Europeans themselves do not have clear positions. In short, it is expected that “Trumpian pragmatism”, the endowment of the new president also praised in the Kremlin’s statements, will be put to the test to redraw a framework that can guarantee stability and development also in Central Asia.
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