at stake its most effective and irreplaceable troops

Rocroi 1643, Leipzig 1813, Balaclava 1854, Gallipoli 1916, Stalingrad 1842-1843. To the list of famous battles, exalted by the scarlet aura of war legend, the history books will inscribe the name of Bakhmut, 2023. Located in Donbas and with a limited strategic importance -but enormous in the symbolic-, a fierce battle of attrition has been taking place there for weeks that Russia is close to winning. The price of this victory, however, could be very expensive for the Kremlin.

To the front line, Putin has mobilized not only the best forces of the Wagner Groupthat organization of mercenaries that increasingly threatens to rebel against him as a “traitor” and not supply him with everything his leader asks for Yevgeny Prigozhin, formerly ‘Putin’s chef’. In Bakhmut, the most effective and hard-to-replace shock troops of the Russian Army also fight and die every day. Both one and the other are at risk of severe degradation and that could prove fatal in the long term, according to the latest report from the Institute for the Study of War.

In its latest analysis of the war in Ukraine, this study group states that Bakhmut is not intrinsically an operationally significant locality -beyond being an eastern enclave for the transport of supplies-. Despite this, the battle there may harm the elite elements of the Wagner Group “in an environment of urban warfare that favors Ukraine” and compromise some of the elite airborne troops of the Russian Army.

[Bakhmut, Vuhledar y ahora Limán: Rusia acumula fracasos al iniciar su nueva ofensiva]

According to this institute founded in 2007, in Washington, by kimberly kagan“taking Bakhmut is necessary but not enough for Russian advances in the Donetsk region, although the struggle for this city has become strategically significant due to the composition of the Russian forces deployed in the area.”

However, the institute cites Western reports suggesting that Ukraine is also spending its own elite forces and equipment on Bakhmut against the Wagner group, “which they are mere cannon fodder“. That exchange reverts to “serious disadvantage for Ukraine even with a high proportion of Russian and Ukrainian losses.”

The Russian forces fighting in Bakhmut at the moment are drawn from the elite elements of the Wagner Group and Russian airborne units, as well as the lower quality troops. This indicates that conventional Russian troops may be supporting or even supplanting Wagner’s operations around that city, according to the report.

“It is likely that the Wagner Group keep using prisoners to support operations in Bakhmut, albeit to a much more limited degree than in previous months due to the massive losses suffered by those recruits in frontal assaults from attrition. But now Wagner He has also committed his best soldiers in the fighting, and it is they who are being worn down along with the recruits,” the institute says.

In no case did Russia expect to find in Bakhmut a resistance so “fierce”, as the leader of the Wagner Group himself described it. This has forced them to apply pressure and move to that front line that was not foreseen. In fact, Prigozhin has claimed that without his best men fighting there, Russia would have no chance of taking the city.which, if it ends up materializing, would mean the Putin’s first big victory in more than half a year.

Zelensky vows resistance

Ukraine’s top generals have stepped up to the rumors indicating a possible withdrawal of the Ukrainian troops and this Tuesday they have promised to continue defending Bakhmut, as declared by President Volodimir Zelensky.

For the past few days Ukrainian troops have been reinforcing positions to the west of the city in apparent preparation for a possible withdrawal, but it appears that this will not happen at the moment. This was decided by Zelensky himself, the regional commander and the commander-in-chief of Ukraine, who they agree to strengthen the defenses.

[El Estado Mayor ucraniano convence a Zelenski para defender Bakhmut pese al alto número de bajas]

“the command unanimously supported this position. There were no other positions. I told the commander-in-chief to find the right forces to help our guys in Bakhmut,” Zelensky said in his Monday night speech.

The battle at Bakhmut has depleted artillery reserves on both sides, with thousands of shells being fired daily along the eastern and southern fronts. For this reason, Western analysts believe that, taking into account the time spent and the casualties suffered, a Russian victory at Bakhmut would be pyrrhic and unprofitable.

kyiv’s European allies, meanwhile, are working on a deal to get more ammunition. At the same time, Prigozhin continues complaining bitterly that the Kremlin is late in delivering ammunition. “I’m knocking on all doors and sounding the alarm about ammo and reinforcementsas well as the need to cover our flanks,” he said in a statement.

“If everyone is coordinated, without personal ambitions, blunders and tantrums, and carry out the work that needs to be done, then we will blockade the armed forces of Ukraine. If not, then the whole world is screwed,” she added in a threatening tone. The Russian Defense Ministry has not yet responded.