economy and politics

Analysts estimate higher GDP growth for 2023

Analysts estimate higher GDP growth for 2023

Analysts expect the Banco de la República’s intervention rate to be at 13% in January 2023. For their part, they expect the rate to remain at 13% in April 2023 and close this year at 10.50% in December.. This is indicated by the monthly survey of Fedesarrollo in the most recent edition of it.

(Why 2023 would be a more complicated year than thought).

For its part, the growth forecast for 2022 was in a range between 7.8% and 8.1%, with 8.0% as the median response.. The median of the forecasts for 2023 was located at 1.5%, within a range between 1.0% and 2.0%.

The median growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 was 4.3%, ranging from 3.6% to 5.0%. For the first quarter of 2023, analysts estimate growth of 2.5%.

Inflation expectations for January 2023 were at 13.36% and for December 2023 at 8.89%.

Analysts expect the Representative Market Rate for January to be between $4,700 and $4,819, with $4,745 as the median response. Likewise, they foresee a TRM of $4,800 as of April 2023 and $4,750 as of December of the same year.

(Consumer confidence recovered in December).

The percentage of analysts who believe that the debt spread will increase in the next 3 months was 28.1%. For their part, 40.6% expect it to decrease, while the remaining 31.3% expect the spread to remain the same.

Economic growth returned as the most important when investing for analysts with 22.6% of responses. The categories of monetary policy and fiscal policy followed with 22.6% and 19.4% of the responses, respectively.

Compared to the previous month, portfolio managers increased their preferences for local and international stocks, private equity funds, commodities, and TES UVR and fixed rate.

(The fall in consumer confidence deepens).

In January, 58.6% of analysts expect an appreciation of the MSCI COLCAP index in the next three months.

Ecopetrol’s share ranked as the most attractive among those that make up the MSCI COLCAP. Next in order are Bancolombia’s ordinary share and Bancolombia’s preferred share.


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