ANALYSIS | The CIA, a Marine and a reward of US$15 million. This alleged plot against Maduro seems like a Hollywood script, for a reason

() – It was the perfect inspirational story, just in time for Christmas.

On December 20 of last year, the United States secured the release of 10 American citizens in Venezuela, six of them unjustly detained, in exchange for a close ally of authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro and a commitment from Caracas to stop detaining Americans for use. as negotiation pawns.

“The administration made very clear the expectation that no more Americans be detained and assured commitments along those lines,” he announced. then an optimistic American official.

That deal, which also included the extradition of a former military contractor known as “Fat Leonard,” who orchestrated the largest corruption scandal in U.S. Navy history, was hailed as a thaw in relations in the protracted standoff. among the countries that have seen the US impose sanctions on Venezuela and accuse its leader of illegally usurping power, violating human rights and drug trafficking.

However, fast forward to almost a year later and the vibe has become more of a Halloween trick than a Christmas present.

Recently, Venezuela announced that it detained at least four U.S. citizens, along with a handful of other foreign nationals, alleging that they were part of an international conspiracy orchestrated by the CIA and Spanish intelligence to overthrow Maduro.

That claim has been strongly denied by the governments of the United States and Spain.

The US State Department said the claims are “categorically false,” and suggested the detentions are linked to US criticism of Venezuela’s disputed presidential election, which Maduro claims to have won despite widespread skepticism. The United States “continues to support a democratic solution to the political crisis in Venezuela,” the State Department said emphatically in commenting on the allegations.

So is there any truth to Venezuela’s claims? And if not, what does Maduro hope to gain by returning to an old strategy?

The details of the alleged plot read like the script for a Hollywood thriller. Maduro’s Interior Minister, Diosdado Hair, claims that the detained foreigners, who also included two Spaniards and a Czech, were part of a shadowy unit that traveled to Venezuela to kill Maduro, apparently motivated by the US Department of Justice’s reward of up to $15 million. The US offered in 2020 for information leading to his arrest or conviction.

According to Cabello, the plot not only involved the CIA, but was led by a Navy Seal, a Marine, in active US service, and involved a shipment of 400 rifles and other manufactured firearms. in the US (now seized).

Cabello claims that two other US citizens were “hackers” intent on disrupting Venezuela’s chronically inefficient electrical service. (This is not the first time Cabello has denounced blackouts; he alleged “terrorist attacks” by the opposition behind a blackout in late August that affected at least nine Venezuelan states and dozens of cities, including the capital Caracas.)

Intriguingly, White House spokesman John Kirby confirmed that the man identified by Caracas as the alleged ringleader, Wilbert Castañeda, is an active-duty member of the US Navy who, according to Kirby, went to Venezuela on a “personal trip.” Other media They reported that Castañeda, who has dual Mexican-American citizenship, used to serve as a Marine, but was stripped of his status at some point in the past.

Given the nature of the allegations, Venezuela’s claims are nearly impossible to independently verify.

However, then skeptics might say that’s exactly the point: that for Maduro, the CIA is simply a convenient, tried-and-tested scapegoat.

In the past, Maduro has also alleged, without evidence, that the US government and former President Donald Trump were behind a 2018 assassination attempt, in which an explosive-laden drone detonated in the air during one of his speeches (an “attack” that prosecutors initially tried to attribute to then-Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos). Ripe has also alleged, again without evidence, that the CIA and Washington in general were responsible for an insurrection in April 2019, and in September of the following year their government detained US citizen Matthew Heath on accusations of spying on oil refineries in the state of Falcón. Heath was later freed in a prisoner exchange, and the US government has always denied his involvement in any of the alleged plots.

That said, Maduro knows there is an audience receptive to such narratives, precisely because the CIA has a well-documented history of interference in the region. And it’s probably not lost on you that the U.S. I was aware of a plot to overthrow his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, weeks before a coup d’état was attempted in 2002.

Still, even among those in the Venezuelan government who believe that the security services have stumbled upon some kind of plot, there are some who are skeptical of Cabello’s claims about CIA involvement.

“I think these are more dogs on the loose than actual US government involvement, because everyone knows that removing Maduro by force would only escalate the conflict around Venezuela,” said a government source who, like others people consulted for this article, asked not to be named due to the confidential nature of the topic.

“But the appeal of the $15 million Justice Department reward cannot be overstated, especially for crazy adventurers, or do you really think an active-duty Marine traveled to Venezuela for a summer romance?” he said. the source.

One scenario that does not appear to be under consideration in the halls of power in Caracas is whether a plot may have emerged from within the country.

That may sound surprising, given that Maduro has alienated vast sectors of the population with his electoral “victory” and subsequent repression of the opposition. He is also likely to have alienated some of those within his own government with his habit of changing and replacing key personnel at will.

However, while it is not impossible to imagine ex-Chavistas plotting to overthrow Maduro, a more likely explanation may simply be that the Venezuelan leader made up the entire story to gain political advantage against his old enemy, the US.

If so, what does Maduro think he can win?

The obvious answer takes us back to the election. In October of last year, before the release of “Fat Leonard” and company, Maduro promised the US that the elections in Venezuela would be free and fair. And as recently as six months ago, the economic community in Caracas hoped that they would at least be fair enough for the US to lift its remaining oil sanctions and return Venezuela to the fold of the world’s democracies.

The subsequent electoral farce and Maduro’s defection from his commitments to restore democracy shattered those hopes and made clear that any further steps toward reconciliation would have to be painfully negotiated by diplomats.

It appears that Maduro sees the newly detained Americans as pawns to be used in those negotiations, with a view to silencing US criticism of the elections and as leverage in any sanctions negotiations.

It’s an approach that sends a calculated message to US President Joe Biden, whose administration has prioritized the release of US citizens unjustly detained abroad, having reached similar agreements with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the releases. from WNBA star Brittney Griner and Wall Street Journal journalist Evan Gershkovich.

However, beyond Biden, the arrests are also a message to whoever assumes the presidency, whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.

Since the disputed vote in Venezuela, the State Department has only acted minimally against the country, imposing personal sanctions on 16 individuals and calling on Venezuela to release complete voting records to clarify the result.

Although the U.S. has imposed economic sanctions on Venezuela’s oil exports for years, a special authorization allowing the oil company Chevron to operate in the country remains in place despite international outcry this summer.

Whoever wins the US election in November will have the fate of the detainees weighing on their shoulders as they face the decision of whether to continue with that minimal approach or tighten the screws.

And they can forget any hope that the fate of the detainees will fall into the hands of the courts.

“You can’t even talk about a trial, to be honest,” said a lawyer who has represented U.S. citizens unjustly detained in Venezuela in the past. “In most cases there is no file with the charges brought against your client, you do not have access to the investigation, there are no witnesses, and you cannot present new evidence, all these procedures occur in a court, but they are a farce” .

“It’s frustrating, you basically go to court, and you know that nothing that is decided there will make any difference to your client,” said another lawyer, whose client was released after spending more than two years in jail without being sentenced.

Even for those convinced that Maduro concocted the plot to gain some leverage against the United States, one mystery still remains: his preferred end goal.

In previous negotiations over prisoner exchanges, Maduro was able to obtain the release of his alleged financial intermediary, Alex Saab, and two of his wife’s nephews who were serving time for trying to smuggle 800 kilograms of cocaine into the United States.

He was also able to secure the withdrawal of some of the oil sanctions that the US imposed on Caracas in recent years.

This time, with none of his close collaborators in US hands, it is unclear what Maduro might ask for at the negotiating table, other than legitimacy and the withdrawal of more sanctions.

Likewise, it is unclear how a new US administration would consider the idea of ​​giving in to an authoritarian bully, and being seen to give in.

Hostage negotiations are an uncomfortable topic for any government, especially the United States, which in the past has insisted on refusing to negotiate with kidnappers.

On the other hand, the US may decide that the freedom of its citizens is worth the limited concessions Maduro is seeking.

As one of the people involved in last year’s negotiations said: “Free societies decide that no innocent man should be in prison. When you accept that a criminal walks free, but no innocent is detained, that is true freedom.”