Jan. 10 () –
According to three global metrics vital to ocean temperatures, 2024 was the warmest year on record. The coincidence that the three are the highest is unusual. It hasn’t happened since 2016.
The three metrics are Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST), Global Sea Surface Temperatures (SST), and Global Ocean Heat Content (OHC). from the surface to 2,000 meters deep.
The most reliable indicator of global warming is the OHC, which acts as an integrator of all warming. It continues to break records year after year. From 2023 to 2024, global ocean heat content showed an increase of 15 zettajoules (10 to the power of 21 joules), energy equivalent to 140 times the world’s total electricity generation in 2023, according to the analysis presented by Kevin Trenberthscientist at the University of Auckland and the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) in the United States.
SST varies quite a bit from year to year, especially with El Niño events. The GMST also varies with El Niño and It is also affected by climate variability. The last El Niño phenomenon began in April 2023 and lasted for a year.
From April 2023 to June 2024, global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were the highest on record, but as El Niño waned, global SSTs decreased. As is usual in El Niño phenomena, the highest anomalous SST value in 2024 was recorded in February, when it exceeded 19.1 degrees Celsius, although the highest real global SST values were recorded in July 2024.
The differences relate to the dominance of southern hemisphere ocean areas for SST versus warmer northern hemisphere land areas for global SST.
CO2 CONCENTRATION 50% ABOVE PREINDUSTRIAL LEVELS
At the same time, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have reached record values. Taking into account the seasonal cycle, values are now about 425 parts per million (ppm) by volume, more than 50 percent above pre-industrial values of 280 ppm.
In fact, according to Trenberththe values are more than 3 ppm higher than last year, indicating that global warming due to the increase in greenhouse gases continues unabated. These increases are primarily due to human activities burning fossil fuels, although wildfires have also contributed. The fact that Earth-warming emissions continue to increase shows that efforts to transition away from fossil fuels faltered in 2024.
Higher atmospheric temperatures mean that the atmosphere absorbs more moisture from the earth’s surface, causing it to dry out, where it does not rain. Everything dries out faster, leading to wilting of plants, heat waves and an increased risk of wildfires.
The consequences of rising ocean temperatures are much more water vapor in the atmosphere, about 7 percent for every degree Celsius of warming. Water vapor is also a powerful greenhouse gas and contributes to warming.
Increased water vapor, as atmospheric moisture, is trapped in all storms, fueling their development and directly causing heavier rain (and snowfall). This includes hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones and atmospheric rivers. The result is an increased risk of extreme weather, heavy rain and extreme flooding.
UNEQUAL REGIONAL EFFECTS
The effects of climate warming and rising ocean temperatures are pronounced regionally and quite uneven. This is due to weather patterns related to El Niño and marine heat waves, according to Trenberth. The latter also profoundly affect marine life, including fish, mammals, seabirds and plants such as kelp forests.
Drought, crop failures, heat waves and wildfires became common in many areas of the world in 2024, from southern Africa in February, southern Asia and the Philippines in April, the Pantanal in Brazil in June, widespread heat waves and wildfires in Europe in August, and the northeastern United States in November.
Mass bleaching occurred in March on the Great Barrier Reef, and in September several hurricanes in the Caribbean in July and in the southeastern United States (especially Helene) wreaked havoc. Typhoon Yagi was deadly and destructive in early September in Southeast Asia and southern China and then flooded Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. Major flooding also occurred in Chad and Nigeria in September, and a monstrous deluge in Valencia in October caused great devastation.
In addition to the loss of lives and livelihoods, the costs and disruption at the local level were devastating. Undoubtedly, all of the above events have many side effects such as erosion, especially in coastal regions where storm surges occur. Fallen trees and power poles cause power outages and start fires.
Extreme changes in weather patterns, from very dry and sunny conditions to very humid conditions and vice versa, increase vulnerability, because soils shrink in dry conditions, opening cracks, and then rainwater flows into the cracks and enlarges them. . The result is that severe weather and record heat fueled by climate change wreaked havoc around the world. There are widespread adverse health effects on many animals and humans, especially from smoke.
The outlook points to further warming, although, Given record increases over the past two years, global average temperatures in 2025 are likely to be slightly colderalthough ocean heat continues to increase. This does not mean that global warming is not occurring, but rather that there is a wide variety of ways it can manifest itself, according to the analysis.
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