() – Pollsters were surprised by the explosion of populism in 2016, but many now think they should not have been surprised. In the United States and the United Kingdom, swathes of voters from disadvantaged regions, places “left behind” by globalization, had the opportunity to hit the system, and they took it. Why was anyone surprised?
Pollsters were now caught off guard by another trend. In this month’s European Parliament elections, far-right parties obtained predictably good results, but especially, and unexpectedly, among young people. A few years ago, the “Climate Generation”, which believed itself to be unquestionably liberal and progressive, voted mostly to the left. But now, your vote has helped far-right parties take one in four seats in Brussels. What happened?
Perhaps “being left behind” is not just a geographic phenomenon, but a generational one.
Gen-Z, born between 1995 and 2012, was baptized by crises: first the financial crisis, then the eurozone crisis, then the pandemic crisis and now the war in Europe. More and more young people believe that they will have a harder life than their parents. Why should a lagging generation be less vulnerable to the pull of populism than lagging places?
Roberto Foa, co-director of the Center for the Future of Democracy at the University of Cambridge, one of the leading researchers of young people’s dissatisfaction with democracy, sees “two major divisions” in Western societies: “The wealth gap between economically prosperous and lagging regions, and the intergenerational gap in life opportunities.”
Political scientists may have overlooked both cohorts because they have been disconnected for so long. But now their apathy is turning into antipathy: a desire, once again, to bash the system. “If you are a political entrepreneur looking to disrupt the established party system, those are your options, in terms of mobilizing new support,” Foa told . The trend, he says, comes from afar: “I’m surprised that people are surprised.”
The support of young people for far-right parties is felt in several European countries. In Germany, Alternative for Germany (AfD) obtained 16% of the vote of those under 25 years of age in the European Union elections, tripling its share in that demographic group compared to the previous vote in 2019. Among minor French voters 34, the National Rally (RN) was the most popular party, with 32% of the vote, an increase of 10 points compared to 2019. In Poland, 30% of voters under 30 years of age supported the party far-right Confederation, up from 18.5% in 2019. Far-right parties enjoyed a similar surge in support in the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal and Austria, and continued to do well in Italy.
To what extent should mainstream parties be alarmed, and surprised?
Let’s consider these proposals. Young people will not pay income tax. If they create a company, they will be exempt from corporate tax for five years. The State will complete the salary of those students who work part-time. The State will also build 100,000 homes for students. They will also be able to travel for free by train.
You would be forgiven for thinking that this must be the platform of the far left. But no: this was RN leader Marine Le Pen’s bid in the 2022 French presidential election, which she narrowly lost. The young people, as expected, loved it. Just under 50% of young people aged 25 to 34 who cast their vote opted for Le Pen, compared to only 41% of the general population and 29% of voters over 70 years old. While the “gray vote” brought Donald Trump to the White House and removed Great Britain from the EUkept the French far-right at bay.
That may change soon. After his Renaissance party was swept by the far-right in the European Union elections, President Emmanuel Macron called an early parliamentary election, which could result in Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old leader of the RN, becoming first minister of France next month.
For Arthur Prevot, head of the RN youth section in Paris, this is great news. Macron’s presidency has failed for young people, he claims.
“Purchasing power has decreased incredibly in the last seven years. Between the ‘gilets jaunes’ crisis, the rise in fuel prices and all the different taxes that have been introduced, all this affects everyday life, including mine,” Prevot, 22, explains to . His economic concerns led him to join the party that could soon govern France, although Macron will remain president.
Jonathan Verbeken, RN candidate for deputy in the 15th arrondissement of Paris, said the main reason he joined the party was because “we see people suffering every day, struggling to make ends meet. We see a deplorable situation in France, specifically with security and immigration. “We want to react to that.”
For many older voters, the RN remains a terrifying prospect. Despite their years-long effort to “normalize,” older generations remember their anti-Semitic and neo-fascist origins.
But young voters seem less concerned about these roots, says Simon Schnetzer, author of a recent survey of German youth.
“Young people are voting for the first time. They are a blank sheet. “What drives their decisions the most is: Who can offer me something that best suits my needs?” he told .
The lack of historical background, together with the strange death of center-left parties in many parts of Europe, has allowed the far right to appear respectable and armed with economic solutions to the problems of young people.
Sarah-Lee Heinrichs, a 23-year-old politician from Germany’s Green Party, said economic concerns have become much more prevalent among young people since the last European Parliament election in 2019, when the Greens first became second. largest party in Germany. After the pandemic, the large-scale war in Ukraine and the return of rampant inflation, environmentalism is no longer the priority of young people, he says.
“If governments don’t provide social security, good jobs and a place to live that doesn’t cost more than 50% of your income each month, then the far right will grow,” Heinrichs told .
And with economic insecurity comes fiercer opposition to immigration, nearly a decade after the continent, and especially Germany, welcomed record numbers of refugees fleeing the war in Syria.
An alarming new trend began last month, after a short video recorded on a German holiday destination, the island Sylt, was posted on X. In the video, well-dressed young Germans shout “Ausländer Raus!” (“Foreigners out!”) and “Deutschland den Deutschen!” (“Germany for the Germans!”) about a Eurodance song from 1999. Since then, the chant has spread throughout the country, the current home of the European soccer championships. Its appeal is not limited to Germans. While Italy played Spain last week, fans in the stadium could be heard doing their own interpretation.
If that is the “demand” side, what about the supply?
After her center-right bloc secured the largest number of seats in the European Parliament, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen took the stage in Brussels to deliver a victory speech. But his tone was more somber than victorious. He spoke about the importance of defending European values: integration, democracy and the rule of law.
How do these abstract values sound to young voters?
“Young people will double check: Does this help me with any of my needs? Does it entertain me? Does it give me security? Is it fun? And if it’s none of that, it’s boring,” Schnetzer said. “If you have this TikTok logic, you will quickly move beyond it.”
While the European mainstream delivers grave speeches, the far-right is developing a vast following on the social media platform TikTok. RN’s shaved Bardella posts videos of himself tasting wines and taking shots.
Maximilian Krah, the AfD’s main candidate in the European elections, offers his followers dating advice: “Don’t watch porn, don’t vote for the Greens.”
In a TikTok, Nigel Farage, often called the “architect” of Brexit, walks up to a fruit shop, says “beautiful melons”, raises his eyebrows and walks away. The video has been viewed 2.5 million times.
Farage seems aware of this burgeoning market and keen to exploit it. In a recent interview, he praised misogynistic influencer Andrew Tate for being an “important voice” for “emasculated” young people. Tate, who has racked up billions of views on TikTok, faces charges in Romania for human trafficking and rape, which he denies.
But those who have wondered about Tate’s appeal among young people should not be surprised that politicians who make breast jokes enjoy similar success. The distinction between politics and entertainment is increasingly blurred, but for today’s young people they no longer even exist in separate spaces. Only a fingertip separates the voice of a figure like Tate and the voice of a politician. It should not surprise us that this is where ideas are forged.
The depth of these sympathies towards the extreme right is still unclear. In a trend especially pronounced among young people, voters are becoming “less loyal to any particular party or platform,” Foa says. “They are very volatile between one election and the next.” Just as young voters vociferously campaigned for green platform parties in 2019, their allegiances could shift again.
The appeal of the far right could also be dimmed if its politicians begin to govern. Outside of government, the extreme right is incapable of breaking its promises, but it can incessantly point out the inability of the majority parties to fulfill them. Once in government, it will be just as disappointing. At least, that seems to be Macron’s theory.
But the rise of support for far-right parties could signal a darker trend. In his studies of young people’s dissatisfaction with democracy, Foa observed a growing inclination toward authoritarianism. Lacking a personal memory of life under an authoritarian regime or the struggle to achieve democracy, young people are less enthusiastic about the system than previous generations.
This success of far-right parties should be a warning to the European majority. To Churchill’s famous quote: “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others,” we should not be surprised that young people ask in response: “Really?”
– ‘s Emmanuel Miculita contributed to this report.
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