Zelensky announces a peace plan for November and NATO membership as soon as the war is over

It must be understood that everything, absolutely everything, that Ukraine can foresee for its future depends on the outcome of those elections.

If the Democrats win, with Biden or any other candidate in the lead, the normal thing is that aid will continue, sanctions against Russia will be maintained and Ukraine’s entry into NATO can be negotiated, something that was described as “irreversible” at the last Atlantic meeting, but which is not recorded as definitive in any document, which is what counts in the end.

However, If Trump wins, Zelensky knows that this aid will be reduced and entry into NATO – which the Ukrainian president himself announced on Monday as immediate once the war is over – will be impossible.

In fact, the very continuity of the Alliance as it has been conceived since the beginning of the Cold War would be in question. Trump believes his partners are not loyal and that they should spend more money on a unit in which the former president sees the United States as the injured party in every conflict.

Territories for peace?

Perhaps that is why Zelensky is so ambiguous when talking about November and his peace plan. A plan that, in principle, we know and that It has been the same since February 2022: Ukraine will demand that Russia completely withdraw its troops to the 2014 borders and ask for financial compensation for the damage caused during the occupation. Russia will obviously refuse and will ask for the same, but in reverse: that Ukraine withdraw from the four regions – Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson – that it unilaterally annexed in September 2022 and then we will talk.

Agreement there is impossible. What we don’t know is to what extent the Trump factor can alter circumstances. The former president says he has his own plan, which is basically a “territories for peace” plan, in which it would be necessary to negotiate which territories and in exchange for which peace guarantees. Could there be some kind of agreement, however unfair it might be, if the United States were to insist? There could be. The thing is that NATO does play a decisive role in this.

Suppose Zelensky – who insists on a Russian delegation attending the peace summit even though the Kremlin has already announced its refusal – decides to give up the already occupied part of these four provinces in exchange for a complete withdrawal from Kharkiv. It is a cruel deal for Ukraine. In part, it would mean giving up everything its soldiers have fought for for two and a half years. It is not ideal, but it would be even less ideal to continue the war on its own or with only the always insufficient support of its European allies.

NATO membership as a guarantee for the future

In that circumstance, Zelensky could face a short-term defeat in exchange for a victory for Ukraine in the medium and long term. In other words, getting the commitment, both from the United States and the other members, that, effectively, once that agreement is signed, dishonorable peace agreementUkraine will become a NATO country.

That, in the future, any attack by Russia against its territory will be an attack against the largest army in the world… and, consequently, guarantee its continuity as a state, something that, otherwise, could only be achieved through constant war or triumph, which its own allies seem to view with caution.

And it is that There arises the other big problem: the allies. Or, to be more concrete, because it all seems to come down to that, the United States. Could Trump guarantee that definitive entry into NATO? It is not clear.o. Trump is not pro-Russian, but he is pro-Putinwhich is saying the same thing at this point. Trump does not believe in an alliance with Europe because he understands that Europe must defend itself. Trump only has eyes for the Chinese threat in the Pacific and the terrorist threat in Iran. Russia is of no concern to him. In his own words: “I will let them do whatever they want with all those countries.”

A Democratic administration would be a different matter. Biden and his people do seem willing to embrace the Ukrainian cause to the very end, and given the respect in which Russia is held in the current White House – starting with Jake Sullivan, the National Security Adviser – it is possible that Zelensky will be asked to make such a concession. Give up what you cannot recover by force, swallow the toad and we will assure you of mutual defence within an organisation in which we do believe.

Both lose, so both win.

Obviously, it would be a very difficult decision. It would also be difficult for Putin. In fact, if the Russian president sticks to his maximalist positions, it is normal that he would not accept such a pact. Putin wants to militarily annex Russian-speaking Ukraine, that is, the one that runs from the border to the Dnieper River, and to control the rest of the country with a puppet government that does not get in the way. That is his dream, which has been acknowledged a thousand times, and for which he has sacrificed tens of thousands of Russian lives and risked a threat of civil war when the Wagner Group launched that coup against him in June 2023.

But for the time being, and as a kick-start, it might be fine. Ukraine would not consider it fair because it is not fair. Russia would consider it insufficient because it does not fit its very unrealistic claims. However, both could see part of their objectives fulfilled: Putin would justify its “special military operation” with the new territories obtained and Zelensky It would have guaranteed the continuity of his country as a state for decades, which, given Russia as a neighbor, is no small feat.

What seems clear is that The war will not be resolved on the battlefront or it won’t be for a long time. The positions remain practically unchanged. Russia’s advances in the Donbas are constant, but not significant, still far from Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, while the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the north of Kharkov seems likely to expel the Russians from that territory sooner or later.

Both sides, especially the invader, are losing men and weapons at a colossal rate. It is not known What will remain of both armies when all this is over?.

Zelensky confirmed the immediate arrival of Dutch and American F16s and the agreement with Romania for the delivery of anti-missile batteries Patriotbut he acknowledged that there are minor problems with the new protests. It is logical that the attacked party will not give in to the aggressor’s demands, but for that, it must be stressed, it will need a greater commitment from its allies. In November, this aspect will undoubtedly become much clearer.