Has demographic decline begun in Colombia?

The demographic transition has conditioned the evolution of the world’s population since the Industrial Revolution. First, as countries began their economic growth, mortality fell rapidly. However, the birth rate remained at high levels for decades. This led to very strong increases in the population. Already in the 20th century, greater schooling and the connection of women to the labor market They caused the birth rate to also begin its decline, first in Europe and then in other advanced economies.

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In the first decades of the 21st century, the decline in fertility has ceased to be a phenomenon exclusive to the richest countries and has spread to the entire developing world. In Latin America, the drop in fertility, in parallel with a large volume of emigration, has had a profound demographic impact that has only begun to gain visibility in public opinion in recent years. For example, according to official data, in 2023 the fertility rates in Brazil and Mexico, the countries with the largest populations in the region, were 1.4 and 1.6 children per woman respectively. These fertility rates are not only below the replacement rate 2.1, but even below the fertility rate of the United States, something unthinkable just 10 years ago. But it is not just Brazil and Mexico: the entire region presents similar rates and, furthermore, falling sharply year after year.

Colombia is a prominent example of this abrupt demographic decline. According to the latest data from Dane, the fertility rate in Colombia was 1.2 in 2023 when as recently as 2014, it had been 1.8. In the district of Bogotá, the fertility rate was 0.9 in 2023. To put these figures in context: Japan, the “example” of a country with low fertility in all textbooks, had a fertility rate of 1. 2 in 2023 and in Tokyo, the Japanese department with the lowest fertility, this was 0.99. That is, Colombia and Japan have already “tied” in the low fertility league and Bogotá has “defeated” Tokyo. But it doesn’t end here. Dane informs us that births in Colombia in January 2024 fell another 13.7% compared to January 2023. In 2024, with almost complete probability, Colombia will have a lower fertility than Japan.

This drop in fertility means that the Colombian population may have already begun to decline in 2023, an unusual phenomenon that has not yet been identified by the authorities. Colombia would have anticipated this almost three decades beyond what was projected by official statisticswho estimated this decline for the 2050s.

Let’s go to the figures. According to Dane projections, the Colombian population rose from 51,682,692 inhabitants in 2022 to 52,215,506 in 2023, which would mean an increase of 1.03%. However, this projection is not consistent with the behavior of births, deaths and net migration.

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In 2023, 510,357 births were registered in Colombia, which represents a decrease of 11% compared to 2022. It is also the lowest figure since aggregate vital statistics data began to be systematically recorded in 1998. Taking population retro-projections based on 20th century censuses as a reference, The number of births observed in 2023 is similar to the figures from 1950 (517,730), when Colombia had a population of close to 13.5 million inhabitants. At the same time, in 2023, 265,047 deaths were recorded, so the natural growth of the population was 245,310 inhabitants.

But natural growth has to be corrected by net migration. According to data from Migración Colombia, last year there were 5,175,412 departures of nationals abroad, while 4,729,814 entries were recorded, so the net migration of Colombians would have been -445,598. A walk through Madrid or Barcelona shows the arrival of many of these Colombians to Spain. This strong loss of population could have been compensated by the arrival of immigrants. However, due to Colombia’s still relatively low level of per capita incomeimmigration has been low except in the case of Venezuelan immigration, which grew strongly starting in 2017, when the economic crisis in that country deepened.

Migration Colombia estimates that as of December 2023 the population of Venezuelans residing in Colombia was 2,864,796, a number slightly lower than the number registered for December 2022, which amounted to 2,896,748. Given that the variation in the number of non-Venezuelan foreigners residing in Colombia in 2023 was not very significant, the decrease in Venezuelan immigration would have amplified the population loss.

Therefore, if we consider the joint evolution of births, deaths, net migration and the Dane population projection for 2022, the population in Colombia would have decreased by almost a quarter of a million inhabitants in 2023, something never seen since colonial times. We are now in a situation that was unforeseen a few years ago: Colombia is losing population.

This demographic panorama will have a significant and persistent impact in areas such as education, pensions or housing that will mark the economic history of Colombia in the coming decades. Our leaders must be aware of this demographic situation and design public policies that best accommodate this surprising Colombian reality.

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JESÚS FERNÁNDEZ-VILLAVERDE AND IVÁN LUZARDO
Department of Economics University of Pennsylvania.